Pablo Carreno Busta vs Jakub Paul — Madrid CH Round of 32

Madrid CH · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
Pablo Carreno Busta
ESP6
Pablo Carreno Busta
#65ATP
1801ELO
1767Clay ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 7 April 2025
clay
SUI
Jakub Paul
#543ATP
1389ELO
1348Clay ELO
27 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWWLLWW
Carreno Busta P.
6-2 6-1
Paul J.
Carreno Busta P.
662
Paul J.
210

Pablo Carreno Busta defeated Jakub Paul 6-2 6-1 in the Madrid CH round of 32 on clay. The result followed the form book — Pablo Carreno Busta came in ranked #65.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Carreno Busta P.serving70% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Paul J.

Paul J.serving68% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
Carreno Busta P.Paul J.
1st serve in·Even
66%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
65%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
52%
Service points won·Even
63%
60%
Return points won·Even
39%
41%
Break points saved·Even
59%
61%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.1
1.7
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.5
1.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (91 vs 65). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Carreno Busta P.Paul J.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
78
21
Break points saved·Dominant
97
62
Break points won·Dominant
61
20
Deciding sets·Dominant
80
5
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
95
85

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Carreno Busta P.
7.4
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Paul J.
4.3
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 28 days (−0.3)
Form & Matchup
9.7+419 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.3Clay Elo 1348
9.6Overall Elo 1801
ELO gap
0.4Overall Elo 1389
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
5.1
Surface form
5.4
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
3.9
Minutes 14d
4.0
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
Surface transition
6.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Carreno Busta P.Paul J.
Freshness·
92
—

Carreno Busta P.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Final
Majchrzak K.
Cilic M.[8]
6-34-66-4
Semi-finals
Cilic M.[8]
Royer V.[7]
3-67-57-67
Majchrzak K.
Gombos N.
7-623-67-61
Quarter-finals
Cilic M.[8]
Gaubas V.
6-766-47-64
Gombos N.
Kotov P.[5]
6-787-56-3
Majchrzak K.
Carreno Busta P.[6]
6-7106-46-1
Royer V.[7]
Piros Z.
2-1
R16
Carreno Busta P.[6]
Hemery C.
6-45-77-69
Piros Z.
Coric B.[1]
5-76-36-4
Royer V.[7]
Holmgren A.
7-646-2
Gaubas V.
Ofner S.
4-66-36-3
Kotov P.[5]
Moro Canas A.
6-45-77-5
Majchrzak K.
Taberner C.
6-46-4
Cilic M.[8]
Trungelliti M.
6-24-66-1
Gombos N.
Shevchenko A.[4]
7-647-5
R32
Hemery C.
Zapata Miralles B.
6-32-66-4
Majchrzak K.
Dellien H.[2]
7-616-1
Coric B.[1]
Blockx A.
6-16-4
Piros Z.
Rincon D.
7-623-67-5
Gaubas V.
Giustino L.
4-67-57-5
Cilic M.[8]
Buse I.
6-37-5
Shevchenko A.[4]
Boyer T.
7-56-3
Carreno Busta P.[6]
Paul J.
6-26-1
Taberner C.
Roca Batalla O.
7-56-2
Royer V.[7]
Hardt N.
7-656-2
Kotov P.[5]
Hassan B.
6-46-4
Moro Canas A.
Butvilas E.
6-36-3
Holmgren A.
Virtanen O.
6-36-757-63
Gombos N.
Damas M.
6-46-3
Ofner S.
Harris B.[3]
4-66-37-5
Trungelliti M.
Merida Aguilar D.
6-36-3