Kamil Majchrzak vs Pablo Carreno BustaMadrid CH Quarter-final

Madrid CH · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
#66ATP
1801ELO
1723Clay ELO
$617kYTD
$3.8MCAREER
30 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 7 April 2025
clay
#65ATP
1801ELO
1767Clay ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
Majchrzak K.
6-7 6-4 6-1
Carreno Busta P.
Majchrzak K.
610662
Carreno Busta P.
712411

Kamil Majchrzak defeated Pablo Carreno Busta 6-7 6-4 6-1 in the Madrid CH quarter-final on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Pablo Carreno Busta came in ranked #65, leading the head-to-head 1–0. Kamil Majchrzak claimed a first win over Pablo Carreno Busta in two meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 1–1.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-01-13Australian OpenR128hardPablo Carreno Busta6-4 6-4 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Majchrzak K.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Carreno Busta P.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Majchrzak K.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
52%
Service points won·Even
65%
63%
Return points won·Even
38%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
66%
59%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.1
3.1
Double faults / match·Even
1.5
1.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (80 vs 91). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
68
78
Break points saved·Even
97
97
Break points won·Slight edge
51
61
Deciding sets·Slight edge
73
80
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
75
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.3
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.9Clay Elo 1723
Surface ELO
5.1+43 Clay Elo edge
5.0Overall Elo 1801
ELO gap
5.0Overall Elo 1801
10.0
H2H
0.0
8.3
Surface form
5.1
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
4.3
Minutes 14d
3.9
3-set count
4.0
8.0
Prev. match
7.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
92
94

Majchrzak K.: 12 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Carreno Busta P.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast