Anna Kalinskaya vs Madison KeysCharleston Round of 16

Charleston · WTA · Round of 16
#20WTA
1907ELO
1804Clay ELO
$1.2MYTD
$7.0MCAREER
27 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWLLWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 31 March 2025
clay
#23WTA
1987ELO
1894Clay ELO
$1.1MYTD
$24MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWL
Kalinskaya A.
6-2 6-4
Keys M.
Kalinskaya A.
662
Keys M.
240

Anna Kalinskaya defeated Madison Keys 6-2 6-4 in the Charleston round of 16 on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Madison Keys came in leading the head-to-head 2–0, defending last year's round of 32. Anna Kalinskaya claimed a first win over Madison Keys in three meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 2–1.

Key context

Head to head

02
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-04-22MadridR32clayMadison Keys7-5 7-6(3)
2022-05-23Roland GarrosR128clayMadison Keys6-3 3-6 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Kalinskaya A.serving69% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Keys M.

Keys M.serving77% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Kalinskaya A.

Serve advantage — Keys M.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
64%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
46%
Service points won·Even
58%
60%
Return points won·Even
42%
44%
Break points saved·Slight edge
54%
60%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.2
4.3
Double faults / match·Even
3.4
3.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (61 vs 66). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
88
94
Break points saved·Slight edge
88
96
Break points won·Slight edge
97
90
Deciding sets·Slight edge
89
97
Tiebreaks·Even
98
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
8.0
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.3Clay Elo 1804
Surface ELO
6.7+89 Clay Elo edge
4.2Overall Elo 1907
ELO gap
5.8Overall Elo 1987
0.0
H2H
10.0
4.0
Surface form
8.6
Fatigue & Travel
7.9
Minutes 14d
8.3
7.0
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
9.0
5.6
Country comfort
7.8
6.0
Surface transition
6.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
92
87

Kalinskaya A.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Keys M.: 8 days rest · 4 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
24°CDrizzle
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 68%