Matias Soto vs Roman Andres BurruchagaConcepcion CH Quarter-final

Concepcion CH · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
#296ATP
1421ELO
1412Clay ELO
27 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWLWLWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 24 March 2025
clay
#65ATP
1711ELO
1694Clay ELO
$446kYTD
$1.2MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLWLLWLW
Soto M.
7-5 6-4
Burruchaga R.
Soto M.
762
Burruchaga R.
540

Matias Soto defeated Roman Andres Burruchaga 7-5 6-4 in the Concepcion CH quarter-final on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Roman Andres Burruchaga came in ranked #65, but Matias Soto had been the form player, winning 6 of their last 8 on clay.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Soto M.serving59% hold

wins 54% of points on serve vs Burruchaga R.

Burruchaga R.serving70% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Soto M.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
55%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
50%
Service points won·Even
60%
61%
Return points won·Even
39%
43%
Break points saved·Even
57%
59%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.1
2.3
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.9
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (63 vs 114). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
34
67
Break points saved·Clear edge
51
68
Break points won·Dominant
14
73
Deciding sets·Clear edge
68
84
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
56
65

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
1.6Clay Elo 1412
Surface ELO
8.4+282 Clay Elo edge
1.5Overall Elo 1421
ELO gap
8.5Overall Elo 1711
4.6No prior meetings
H2H
5.4
4.6
Surface form
4.9
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.3
Minutes 14d
6.9
3-set count
7.0
8.0
Prev. match
9.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
55
90

Soto M.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 77 games (7d) · Burruchaga R.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast