Reilly Opelka vs Holger Rune — Miami Masters Round of 64

Miami Masters · ATP · Round of 64
Reilly Opelka
USA
Reilly Opelka
#115ATP
1749ELO
1734Hard ELO
$325kYTD
$6.0MCAREER
28 yrs · 211 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLWWLWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Wednesday, 19 March 2025
hard
Holger Rune
DEN11
Holger Rune
#77ATP
1757ELO
1725Hard ELO
$0YTD
$16MCAREER
23 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWLWW
Opelka R.
4-6 6-3 7-6
Rune H.
Opelka R.
46772
Rune H.
63651

Reilly Opelka defeated Holger Rune 4-6 6-3 7-6 in the Miami Masters round of 64 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Holger Rune came in ranked #77, defending last year's round of 64.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Opelka R.serving91% hold

wins 71% of points on serve vs Rune H.

Rune H.serving96% hold

wins 76% of points on serve vs Opelka R.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Opelka R.Rune H.
86
Serve
47
0
Return
58

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Opelka R.Rune H.
1st serve in·Even
64%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
79%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
53%
Service points won·Even
69%
65%
Return points won·Slight edge
28%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
74%
63%
Aces / match·Dominant
16.9
5.3
Double faults / match·Clear edge
4.0
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (67 vs 51). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Opelka R.Rune H.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
63
91
Break points saved·Even
100
99
Break points won·Dominant
1
84
Deciding sets·Slight edge
88
98
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
93
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Opelka R.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Rune H.
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.9+9 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
5.1Hard Elo 1725
4.8Overall Elo 1749
ELO gap
5.2Overall Elo 1757
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
4.8
Surface form
7.5
0.0
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
6.8
Minutes 14d
3.4
7.0
3-set count
4.0
7.0
Prev. match
8.0
6.6
Country comfort
5.7
Context
5.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
25°CClear
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 48%
Final
Mensik J.
Djokovic N.[4]
7-647-64
Semi-finals
Mensik J.
Fritz T.[3]
7-644-67-64
Djokovic N.[4]
Dimitrov G.[14]
6-26-3
Quarter-finals
Djokovic N.[4]
Korda S.[24]
6-37-64
Dimitrov G.[14]
Cerundolo F.[23]
6-766-47-63
Mensik J.
Fils A.[17]
7-656-1
Fritz T.[3]
Berrettini M.[29]
7-56-777-5
R16
Mensik J.
Machac T.[20]
W/O
Fils A.[17]
Zverev A.[1]
3-66-36-4
Berrettini M.[29]
De Minaur A.[10]
6-37-67
Dimitrov G.[14]
Nakashima B.[31]
6-47-5
Cerundolo F.[23]
Ruud C.[5]
6-46-2
Djokovic N.[4]
Musetti L.[15]
6-26-2
Korda S.[24]
Monfils G.
6-42-66-4
Fritz T.[3]
Walton A.
6-37-5
R32
Zverev A.[1]
Thompson J.
7-56-4
Machac T.[20]
Opelka R.
7-616-3
Berrettini M.[29]
Bergs Z.
6-46-4
Fritz T.[3]
Shapovalov D.[27]
7-56-3
Monfils G.
Munar J.
7-55-77-61
De Minaur A.[10]
Fonseca J.
5-77-56-3
Korda S.[24]
Tsitsipas S.[9]
7-646-3
Djokovic N.[4]
Ugo Carabelli C.
6-17-61
Fils A.[17]
Tiafoe F.[16]
7-6115-76-2
Walton A.
Wong C.
7-664-66-4
Musetti L.[15]
Auger Aliassime F.[18]
4-66-26-3
Nakashima B.[31]
Goffin D.
6-36-756-3
Dimitrov G.[14]
Khachanov K.[22]
6-736-47-5
Cerundolo F.[23]
Paul T.[12]
6-27-64
Ruud C.[5]
Tabilo A.[30]
6-47-64
Mensik J.
Safiullin R.
6-46-4
R64
Thompson J.
Mpetshi Perricard G.[28]
7-647-61
Musetti L.[15]
Halys Q.
3-67-647-5
Fils A.[17]
Diallo G.
6-42-3
Wong C.
Shelton B.[13]
7-632-67-65
Mensik J.
Draper J.[6]
7-627-63
Walton A.
Darderi L.
6-46-4
Monfils G.
Lehecka J.[26]
6-13-67-68
Korda S.[24]
Spizzirri E.
6-46-2
Zverev A.[1]
Fearnley J.
6-26-4
Dimitrov G.[14]
Cina F.
6-16-4
Tiafoe F.[16]
Davidovich Fokina A.
7-57-65
Ugo Carabelli C.
Michelsen A.[32]
6-737-56-3
Shapovalov D.[27]
Tirante T.
6-36-717-63
Fritz T.[3]
Sonego L.
7-626-3
Opelka R.
Rune H.[11]
4-66-37-65
Machac T.[20]
Arnaldi M.
6-21-66-3
Berrettini M.[29]
Gaston H.
4-66-36-3
Auger Aliassime F.[18]
Schoolkate T.
6-46-4
Fonseca J.
Humbert U.[19]
6-46-3
Munar J.
Medvedev D.[7]
6-26-3
Djokovic N.[4]
Hijikata R.
6-07-61
Bergs Z.
Rublev A.[8]
7-56-4
Tabilo A.[30]
Moutet C.
5-76-37-5
Safiullin R.
Popyrin A.[25]
6-746-37-5
Ruud C.[5]
Kecmanovic M.
3-66-46-4
Tsitsipas S.[9]
Tseng C.
4-67-56-3
Cerundolo F.[23]
Muller A.
6-16-2
Paul T.[12]
Bublik A.
5-77-56-4
Khachanov K.[22]
Kyrgios N.
7-636-0
Goffin D.
Alcaraz C.[2]
5-76-46-3
Nakashima B.[31]
Carballes Baena R.
6-44-66-3
De Minaur A.[10]
Yunchaokete B.
6-46-4
R128
Moutet C.
Blockx A.
7-656-4
Goffin D.
Vukic A.
2-66-46-2
Bergs Z.
Borges N.
7-627-5
Gaston H.
Nishioka Y.
6-43-1
Cina F.
Comesana F.
7-647-62
Thompson J.
Giron M.
3-66-47-5
Hijikata R.
Medjedovic H.
7-53-67-5
Fearnley J.
Bonzi B.
7-662-66-4
Mensik J.
Bautista Agut R.
6-43-66-1
Fonseca J.
Tien L.
6-716-36-4
Yunchaokete B.
Norrie C.
6-46-2
Arnaldi M.
Wu Y.
7-634-66-3
Davidovich Fokina A.
Struff J.
7-636-3
Ugo Carabelli C.
Holt B.
2-67-656-4
Schoolkate T.
Quinn E.
6-06-2
Tseng C.
Bellucci M.
7-656-2
Halys Q.
Seyboth Wild T.
6-36-4
Kecmanovic M.
Kovacevic A.
6-46-4
Safiullin R.
Brooksby J.
6-33-66-3
Munar J.
Rinderknech A.
6-37-65
Sonego L.
Navone M.
7-57-5
Darderi L.
Martinez P.
6-46-1
Muller A.
Sakamoto R.
6-46-4
Wong C.
Altmaier D.
6-46-3
Spizzirri E.
Harris B.
7-623-66-2
Tirante T.
Cobolli F.
6-13-66-3
Monfils G.
Marozsan F.
6-33-66-4
Bublik A.
Baez S.
6-36-4
Kyrgios N.
Mcdonald M.
3-66-36-4
Carballes Baena R.
Oconnell C.
6-33-67-65
Diallo G.
Etcheverry T.
6-36-0
Opelka R.
Eubanks C.
6-37-64