David Goffin vs Carlos AlcarazMiami Masters Round of 64

Miami Masters · ATP · Round of 64
#251ATP
1665ELO
1626Hard ELO
35 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLLLLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Wednesday, 19 March 2025
hard
#3ATP
2162ELO
2088Hard ELO
$4.4MYTD
$65MCAREER
23 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWL
Goffin D.
5-7 6-4 6-3
Alcaraz C.
Goffin D.
5662
Alcaraz C.
7431

David Goffin defeated Carlos Alcaraz 5-7 6-4 6-3 in the Miami Masters round of 64 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Carlos Alcaraz came in ranked #3, defending last year's quarter-final. David Goffin extended the head-to-head to 2–1.

Key context

Head to head

11
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2022-10-03AstanaR32hardDavid Goffin7-5 6-3
2021-02-01Great Ocean Road OpenR32hardCarlos Alcaraz6-3 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Goffin D.serving66% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Alcaraz C.

Alcaraz C.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Goffin D.

Serve advantage — Alcaraz C.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Goffin D.Alcaraz C.
12
Serve
74
43
Return
95

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
56%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
74%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
47%
57%
Service points won·Slight edge
59%
68%
Return points won·Even
38%
42%
Break points saved·Clear edge
52%
67%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.4
5.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.4
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (48 vs 103). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
82
98
Break points saved·Even
96
100
Break points won·Dominant
64
99
Deciding sets·Even
96
100
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
81
100

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
8.4
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
0.0Hard Elo 1626
Surface ELO
10.0+463 Hard Elo edge
0.0Overall Elo 1665
ELO gap
10.0Overall Elo 2162
10.0
H2H
0.0
3.2
Surface form
8.3
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
6.6
Minutes 14d
5.7
7.0
3-set count
7.0
6.0
Prev. match
8.0
5.7
Country comfort
6.8
Context
6.0
Defending pts
7.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
100

Goffin D.: 21 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
25°CClear
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 48%