Joao Fonseca vs Kei NishikoriPhoenix CH Semi-final

Phoenix CH · CHALLENGER · Semi-final
#27ATP
1928ELO
1914Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$3.9MCAREER
19 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWWWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Tuesday, 11 March 2025
hard
#717ATP
1714ELO
1680Hard ELO
36 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWWLWL
Fonseca J.
6-3 6-3
Nishikori K.
Fonseca J.
662
Nishikori K.
330

Joao Fonseca defeated Kei Nishikori 6-3 6-3 in the Phoenix CH semi-final on hard. The result followed the form book — Joao Fonseca came in ranked #27.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Fonseca J.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Nishikori K.

Nishikori K.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Fonseca J.

Serve advantage — Fonseca J.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Fonseca J.Nishikori K.
48
Serve
38
Return

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
67%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
73%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
49%
Service points won·Slight edge
66%
61%
Return points won·Even
37%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
63%
55%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.8
2.8
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.9
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (64 vs 29). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
76
89
Break points saved·Even
97
97
Break points won·Dominant
43
74
Deciding sets·Slight edge
89
100
Tiebreaks·Even
96
97

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.4
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.9+233 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.1Hard Elo 1680
7.7Overall Elo 1928
ELO gap
2.3Overall Elo 1714
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
6.6
Surface form
3.7
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
8.1
Minutes 14d
7.3
7.0
3-set count
7.0
9.0
Prev. match
6.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
94

Fonseca J.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast