Joao Fonseca vs Alexander BublikPhoenix CH Final

Phoenix CH · CHALLENGER · Final
#27ATP
1928ELO
1914Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$3.9MCAREER
19 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWWWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Tuesday, 11 March 2025
hard
#11ATP
1889ELO
1837Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$12MCAREER
29 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLLWWLL
Fonseca J.
7-6 7-6
Bublik A.
Fonseca J.
77772
Bublik A.
65600

Joao Fonseca defeated Alexander Bublik 7-6 7-6 in the Phoenix CH final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Alexander Bublik came in ranked #11.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Fonseca J.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Bublik A.

Bublik A.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Fonseca J.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Fonseca J.Bublik A.
48
Serve
65
38
Return
25

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
67%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
73%
78%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
49%
Service points won·Even
66%
67%
Return points won·Even
37%
35%
Break points saved·Even
63%
66%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.7
10.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.9
4.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (64 vs 91). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
76
88
Break points saved·Even
97
99
Break points won·Clear edge
43
67
Deciding sets·Slight edge
89
99
Tiebreaks·Even
96
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.8+77 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.2Hard Elo 1837
5.1Overall Elo 1928
ELO gap
4.9Overall Elo 1889
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
6.6
Surface form
1.9
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 4
Fatigue & Travel
8.1
Minutes 14d
9.0
7.0
3-set count
7.0
9.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
94
78

Fonseca J.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Bublik A.: 8 days rest · 4 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast