Colton Smith vs Flavio Cobolli — Indian Wells Masters Round of 128

Indian Wells Masters · ATP · Round of 128
USA
Colton Smith
#186ATP
1577ELO
1566Hard ELO
$154kYTD
$480kCAREER
23 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWLLWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Wednesday, 5 March 2025
hard
Flavio Cobolli
ITA
Flavio Cobolli
#10ATP
1896ELO
1810Hard ELO
$3.1MYTD
$8.4MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWWW
Smith C.
3-6 6-2 6-2
Cobolli F.
Smith C.
3662
Cobolli F.
6221

Colton Smith defeated Flavio Cobolli 3-6 6-2 6-2 in the Indian Wells Masters round of 128 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Flavio Cobolli came in ranked #10, defending last year's round of 128.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Smith C.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Cobolli F.

Cobolli F.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Smith C.

Serve advantage — Smith C.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Smith C.Cobolli F.
—
Serve
20
—
Return
35

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Smith C.Cobolli F.
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
56%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
53%
Service points won·Even
63%
62%
Return points won·Even
39%
37%
Break points saved·Even
63%
63%
Aces / match·Even
5.0
5.1
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.3
3.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (80 vs 84). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Smith C.Cobolli F.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
62
76
Break points saved·Even
94
96
Break points won·Clear edge
52
35
Deciding sets·Slight edge
92
98
Tiebreaks·Dominant
8
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Smith C.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Cobolli F.
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
1.1Hard Elo 1566
Surface ELO
8.9+244 Hard Elo edge
0.0Overall Elo 1577
ELO gap
10.0Overall Elo 1896
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
7.1
Surface form
2.1
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 5
Fatigue & Travel
9.1
Minutes 14d
8.8
8.0
Prev. match
7.0
7.0
Country comfort
Context
5.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Smith C.Cobolli F.
Freshness·Dominant
100
61

Smith C.: 17 days rest · Cobolli F.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 63 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
21°COvercast
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 27%
Final
Draper J.[13]
Rune H.[12]
6-26-2
Semi-finals
Rune H.[12]
Medvedev D.[5]
7-56-4
Draper J.[13]
Alcaraz C.[2]
6-10-66-4
Quarter-finals
Rune H.[12]
Griekspoor T.
5-76-06-3
Medvedev D.[5]
Fils A.[20]
6-42-67-67
Draper J.[13]
Shelton B.[11]
6-47-5
Alcaraz C.[2]
Cerundolo F.[25]
6-37-64
R16
Shelton B.[11]
Nakashima B.[32]
7-666-1
Medvedev D.[5]
Paul T.[10]
6-46-0
Griekspoor T.
Watanuki Y.
7-646-1
Cerundolo F.[25]
De Minaur A.[9]
7-56-3
Rune H.[12]
Tsitsipas S.[8]
6-46-4
Fils A.[20]
Giron M.
6-22-66-3
Alcaraz C.[2]
Dimitrov G.[14]
6-16-1
Draper J.[13]
Fritz T.[3]
7-56-4
R32
De Minaur A.[9]
Hurkacz H.[21]
6-46-0
Giron M.
Popyrin A.[26]
5-76-36-3
Watanuki Y.
Tiafoe F.[16]
6-47-66
Griekspoor T.
Mpetshi Perricard G.[29]
7-636-3
Medvedev D.[5]
Michelsen A.[31]
2-0
Nakashima B.[32]
Arnaldi M.
6-26-4
Paul T.[10]
Norrie C.
6-37-5
Fritz T.[3]
Tabilo A.[30]
4-66-36-1
Tsitsipas S.[8]
Berrettini M.[28]
6-36-3
Fils A.[20]
Musetti L.[15]
3-67-646-3
Rune H.[12]
Humbert U.[18]
5-76-47-5
Cerundolo F.[25]
Van De Zandschulp B.
6-36-4
Alcaraz C.[2]
Shapovalov D.[27]
6-26-4
Dimitrov G.[14]
Monfils G.
7-644-67-62
Shelton B.[11]
Khachanov K.[22]
6-37-5
Draper J.[13]
Brooksby J.
7-56-4
R64
Watanuki Y.
Machac T.[19]
4-64-2
Mpetshi Perricard G.[29]
Marozsan F.
6-40-0
Tiafoe F.[16]
Dzumhur D.
7-647-67
Monfils G.
Korda S.[24]
7-627-64
Berrettini M.[28]
Oconnell C.
6-27-62
Michelsen A.[31]
Smith C.
6-36-4
Hurkacz H.[21]
Gaston H.
7-56-3
Tabilo A.[30]
Lajovic D.
6-37-5
Rune H.[12]
Moutet C.
6-26-4
Paul T.[10]
Boyer T.
6-36-1
Nakashima B.[32]
Hijikata R.
7-56-1
Fritz T.[3]
Gigante M.
6-37-5
Griekspoor T.
Zverev A.[1]
4-67-657-64
Van De Zandschulp B.
Djokovic N.[6]
6-23-66-1
Musetti L.[15]
Safiullin R.
7-55-76-2
Popyrin A.[26]
Bergs Z.
7-647-5
Giron M.
Ruud C.[4]
7-643-66-2
De Minaur A.[9]
Goffin D.
6-26-2
Humbert U.[18]
Nishikori K.
6-46-3
Brooksby J.
Auger Aliassime F.[17]
6-46-2
Medvedev D.[5]
Yunchaokete B.
6-26-2
Dimitrov G.[14]
Borges N.
6-36-4
Alcaraz C.[2]
Halys Q.
6-46-2
Shapovalov D.[27]
Walton A.
6-36-2
Cerundolo F.[25]
Mcdonald M.
4-67-636-1
Draper J.[13]
Fonseca J.
6-46-0
Shelton B.[11]
Navone M.
6-36-2
Khachanov K.[22]
Mensik J.
3-66-06-3
Arnaldi M.
Rublev A.[7]
6-47-5
Norrie C.
Lehecka J.[23]
3-66-47-5
Fils A.[20]
Diallo G.
6-26-2
Tsitsipas S.[8]
Seyboth Wild T.
6-26-4
R128
Halys Q.
Carreno Busta P.
6-36-4
Walton A.
Zeppieri G.
7-56-1
Monfils G.
Struff J.
6-46-4
Borges N.
Rinderknech A.
6-15-76-2
Goffin D.
Sonego L.
6-47-5
Gaston H.
Darderi L.
6-36-3
Van De Zandschulp B.
Kyrgios N.
7-673-0
Lajovic D.
Tu L.
6-26-0
Brooksby J.
Bonzi B.
1-67-57-5
Fonseca J.
Fearnley J.
6-21-66-3
Navone M.
Tien L.
7-56-4
Mensik J.
Etcheverry T.
6-47-66
Hijikata R.
Shevchenko A.
6-16-3
Arnaldi M.
Kovacevic A.
6-35-76-4
Mcdonald M.
Davidovich Fokina A.
2-66-36-2
Boyer T.
Vukic A.
4-66-27-64
Gigante M.
Baez S.
3-66-16-4
Norrie C.
Nardi L.
6-06-3
Giron M.
Basilashvili N.
7-57-63
Bergs Z.
Quinn E.
7-626-3
Moutet C.
Thompson J.
6-44-66-3
Watanuki Y.
Bublik A.
6-33-66-3
Dzumhur D.
Bautista Agut R.
6-41-67-64
Oconnell C.
Carballes Baena R.
6-30-66-1
Marozsan F.
Martinez P.
6-36-2
Yunchaokete B.
Basavareddy N.
7-56-4
Smith C.
Cobolli F.
3-66-26-2
Safiullin R.
Opelka R.
7-56-4
Diallo G.
Zhang Z.
2-66-27-67
Seyboth Wild T.
Muller A.
4-67-57-66
Nishikori K.
Munar J.
6-25-77-63
Griekspoor T.
Kecmanovic M.
6-756-46-3