Matteo Gigante vs Sebastian Baez — Indian Wells Masters Round of 128

Indian Wells Masters · ATP · Round of 128
Matteo Gigante
ITA
Matteo Gigante
#521ATP
1592ELO
1534Hard ELO
24 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWLLWLLL
2 — 1
Sets
Wednesday, 5 March 2025
hard
Sebastian Baez
ARG
Sebastian Baez
#57ATP
1759ELO
1709Hard ELO
$924kYTD
$6.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWW
Gigante M.
3-6 6-1 6-4
Baez S.
Gigante M.
3662
Baez S.
6141

Matteo Gigante defeated Sebastian Baez 3-6 6-1 6-4 in the Indian Wells Masters round of 128 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Sebastian Baez came in ranked #57, defending last year's round of 32.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Gigante M.serving72% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Baez S.

Baez S.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Gigante M.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Gigante M.Baez S.
—
Serve
5
—
Return
63

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Gigante M.Baez S.
1st serve in·Clear edge
60%
72%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
69%
64%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
51%
Service points won·Even
61%
60%
Return points won·Even
39%
41%
Break points saved·Even
61%
59%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.2
1.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.3
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (49 vs 79). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Gigante M.Baez S.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
58
87
Break points saved·Clear edge
78
96
Break points won·Dominant
35
86
Deciding sets·Even
89
88
Tiebreaks·Dominant
54
83

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Gigante M.
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Baez S.
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.9Hard Elo 1534
Surface ELO
7.1+175 Hard Elo edge
3.1Overall Elo 1592
ELO gap
6.9Overall Elo 1759
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
3.7
Surface form
0.0
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
8.2
Minutes 14d
5.0
3-set count
0.0
8.0
Prev. match
6.0
Surface transition
6.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Gigante M.Baez S.
Freshness·
—
95

Baez S.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
21°COvercast
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 27%
Final
Draper J.[13]
Rune H.[12]
6-26-2
Semi-finals
Rune H.[12]
Medvedev D.[5]
7-56-4
Draper J.[13]
Alcaraz C.[2]
6-10-66-4
Quarter-finals
Rune H.[12]
Griekspoor T.
5-76-06-3
Medvedev D.[5]
Fils A.[20]
6-42-67-67
Draper J.[13]
Shelton B.[11]
6-47-5
Alcaraz C.[2]
Cerundolo F.[25]
6-37-64
R16
Shelton B.[11]
Nakashima B.[32]
7-666-1
Medvedev D.[5]
Paul T.[10]
6-46-0
Griekspoor T.
Watanuki Y.
7-646-1
Cerundolo F.[25]
De Minaur A.[9]
7-56-3
Rune H.[12]
Tsitsipas S.[8]
6-46-4
Fils A.[20]
Giron M.
6-22-66-3
Alcaraz C.[2]
Dimitrov G.[14]
6-16-1
Draper J.[13]
Fritz T.[3]
7-56-4
R32
De Minaur A.[9]
Hurkacz H.[21]
6-46-0
Giron M.
Popyrin A.[26]
5-76-36-3
Watanuki Y.
Tiafoe F.[16]
6-47-66
Griekspoor T.
Mpetshi Perricard G.[29]
7-636-3
Medvedev D.[5]
Michelsen A.[31]
2-0
Nakashima B.[32]
Arnaldi M.
6-26-4
Paul T.[10]
Norrie C.
6-37-5
Fritz T.[3]
Tabilo A.[30]
4-66-36-1
Tsitsipas S.[8]
Berrettini M.[28]
6-36-3
Fils A.[20]
Musetti L.[15]
3-67-646-3
Rune H.[12]
Humbert U.[18]
5-76-47-5
Cerundolo F.[25]
Van De Zandschulp B.
6-36-4
Alcaraz C.[2]
Shapovalov D.[27]
6-26-4
Dimitrov G.[14]
Monfils G.
7-644-67-62
Shelton B.[11]
Khachanov K.[22]
6-37-5
Draper J.[13]
Brooksby J.
7-56-4
R64
Watanuki Y.
Machac T.[19]
4-64-2
Mpetshi Perricard G.[29]
Marozsan F.
6-40-0
Tiafoe F.[16]
Dzumhur D.
7-647-67
Monfils G.
Korda S.[24]
7-627-64
Berrettini M.[28]
Oconnell C.
6-27-62
Michelsen A.[31]
Smith C.
6-36-4
Hurkacz H.[21]
Gaston H.
7-56-3
Tabilo A.[30]
Lajovic D.
6-37-5
Rune H.[12]
Moutet C.
6-26-4
Paul T.[10]
Boyer T.
6-36-1
Nakashima B.[32]
Hijikata R.
7-56-1
Fritz T.[3]
Gigante M.
6-37-5
Griekspoor T.
Zverev A.[1]
4-67-657-64
Van De Zandschulp B.
Djokovic N.[6]
6-23-66-1
Musetti L.[15]
Safiullin R.
7-55-76-2
Popyrin A.[26]
Bergs Z.
7-647-5
Giron M.
Ruud C.[4]
7-643-66-2
De Minaur A.[9]
Goffin D.
6-26-2
Humbert U.[18]
Nishikori K.
6-46-3
Brooksby J.
Auger Aliassime F.[17]
6-46-2
Medvedev D.[5]
Yunchaokete B.
6-26-2
Dimitrov G.[14]
Borges N.
6-36-4
Alcaraz C.[2]
Halys Q.
6-46-2
Shapovalov D.[27]
Walton A.
6-36-2
Cerundolo F.[25]
Mcdonald M.
4-67-636-1
Draper J.[13]
Fonseca J.
6-46-0
Shelton B.[11]
Navone M.
6-36-2
Khachanov K.[22]
Mensik J.
3-66-06-3
Arnaldi M.
Rublev A.[7]
6-47-5
Norrie C.
Lehecka J.[23]
3-66-47-5
Fils A.[20]
Diallo G.
6-26-2
Tsitsipas S.[8]
Seyboth Wild T.
6-26-4
R128
Halys Q.
Carreno Busta P.
6-36-4
Walton A.
Zeppieri G.
7-56-1
Monfils G.
Struff J.
6-46-4
Borges N.
Rinderknech A.
6-15-76-2
Goffin D.
Sonego L.
6-47-5
Gaston H.
Darderi L.
6-36-3
Van De Zandschulp B.
Kyrgios N.
7-673-0
Lajovic D.
Tu L.
6-26-0
Brooksby J.
Bonzi B.
1-67-57-5
Fonseca J.
Fearnley J.
6-21-66-3
Navone M.
Tien L.
7-56-4
Mensik J.
Etcheverry T.
6-47-66
Hijikata R.
Shevchenko A.
6-16-3
Arnaldi M.
Kovacevic A.
6-35-76-4
Mcdonald M.
Davidovich Fokina A.
2-66-36-2
Boyer T.
Vukic A.
4-66-27-64
Gigante M.
Baez S.
3-66-16-4
Norrie C.
Nardi L.
6-06-3
Giron M.
Basilashvili N.
7-57-63
Bergs Z.
Quinn E.
7-626-3
Moutet C.
Thompson J.
6-44-66-3
Watanuki Y.
Bublik A.
6-33-66-3
Dzumhur D.
Bautista Agut R.
6-41-67-64
Oconnell C.
Carballes Baena R.
6-30-66-1
Marozsan F.
Martinez P.
6-36-2
Yunchaokete B.
Basavareddy N.
7-56-4
Smith C.
Cobolli F.
3-66-26-2
Safiullin R.
Opelka R.
7-56-4
Diallo G.
Zhang Z.
2-66-27-67
Seyboth Wild T.
Muller A.
4-67-57-66
Nishikori K.
Munar J.
6-25-77-63
Griekspoor T.
Kecmanovic M.
6-756-46-3