Jessica Pegula vs Mccartney KesslerAustin Final

Austin · WTA · Final
#3WTA
2097ELO
2058Hard ELO
$2.8MYTD
$25MCAREER
32 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 24 February 2025
hard
#46WTA
1808ELO
1785Hard ELO
$545kYTD
$2.4MCAREER
27 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLLLWL
Pegula J.
7-5 6-2
Kessler M.
Pegula J.
762
Kessler M.
520

Jessica Pegula defeated Mccartney Kessler 7-5 6-2 in the Austin final on hard. The result followed the form book — Jessica Pegula came in ranked #3, leading the head-to-head 1–0. Jessica Pegula extended the head-to-head to 2–0.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-01-19Australian OpenR64hardJessica Pegula6-0 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Pegula J.serving79% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Kessler M.

Kessler M.serving69% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Pegula J.

Serve advantage — Pegula J.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Pegula J.Kessler M.
68
Serve
27
73
Return
45

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
68%
63%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
47%
Service points won·Slight edge
62%
57%
Return points won·Even
45%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
55%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.2
1.9
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.2
3.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (96 vs 77). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
96
84
Break points saved·Slight edge
96
91
Break points won·Even
99
95
Deciding sets·Slight edge
100
94
Tiebreaks·Dominant
96
58

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.3
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
8.2+274 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.8Hard Elo 1785
8.3Overall Elo 2097
ELO gap
1.7Overall Elo 1808
5.0
H2H
5.0
6.0
Surface form
5.9
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
8.3
Minutes 14d
7.0
3-set count
7.0
9.0
Prev. match
7.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
79
97

Pegula J.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 28 games (7d) · Kessler M.: 12 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast