Matteo Berrettini vs Novak DjokovicDoha Round of 32

Doha · ATP · Round of 32
#51ATP
1831ELO
1797Hard ELO
$902kYTD
$15MCAREER
30 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 17 February 2025
hard
#8ATP
2059ELO
2022Hard ELO
$1.8MYTD
$193MCAREER
39 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLWWL
Berrettini M.
7-6 6-2
Djokovic N.
Berrettini M.
7762
Djokovic N.
6420

Matteo Berrettini defeated Novak Djokovic 7-6 6-2 in the Doha round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Novak Djokovic came in ranked #8, leading the head-to-head 4–0. Matteo Berrettini claimed a first win over Novak Djokovic in five meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 4–1.

Key context

Head to head

04
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2021-08-30US OpenQFhardNovak Djokovic5-7 6-2 6-2 6-3
2021-06-28WimbledonFgrassNovak Djokovic6-7(4) 6-4 6-4 6-3
2021-05-31Roland GarrosQFclayNovak Djokovic6-3 6-2 6-7(5) 7-5
2019-11-11Tour FinalsRRhardNovak Djokovic6-2 6-1

Serve vs return

This season
Berrettini M.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Djokovic N.

Djokovic N.serving94% hold

wins 74% of points on serve vs Berrettini M.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Berrettini M.Djokovic N.
57
Serve
68
10
Return
62

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
67%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
75%
76%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
55%
Service points won·Even
68%
69%
Return points won·Slight edge
34%
40%
Break points saved·Even
67%
64%
Aces / match·Even
8.7
8.1
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.6
2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (55 vs 55). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
81
99
Break points saved·Even
100
100
Break points won·Dominant
53
99
Deciding sets·Slight edge
91
100
Tiebreaks·Even
98
100

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Injury return: 35 days (−1.0)
Form & Matchup
2.1Hard Elo 1797
Surface ELO
7.9+224 Hard Elo edge
1.9Overall Elo 1831
ELO gap
8.1Overall Elo 2059
5.0
H2H
5.0
4.6
Surface form
7.8
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
8.6
Minutes 14d
7.0
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
73
42

Berrettini M.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 49 games (7d) · Djokovic N.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 127 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
22°CRain
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 77%