Paula Badosa vs Elise MertensDubai Round of 32

Dubai · WTA · Round of 32
#141WTA
1780ELO
1748Hard ELO
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLLWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 17 February 2025
hard
#27WTA
1894ELO
1847Hard ELO
$1.6MYTD
$19MCAREER
30 yrs · 179 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWLWL
Badosa P.
6-2 6-1
Mertens E.
Badosa P.
662
Mertens E.
210

Paula Badosa defeated Elise Mertens 6-2 6-1 in the Dubai round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Elise Mertens came in ranked #27, defending last year's round of 64.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Badosa P.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Mertens E.

Mertens E.serving80% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Badosa P.

Serve advantage — Mertens E.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Badosa P.Mertens E.
21
Serve
51
19
Return
54

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
58%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
70%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
43%
48%
Service points won·Even
58%
61%
Return points won·Even
43%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
55%
60%
Aces / match·Even
4.6
4.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
5.5
3.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (47 vs 68). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
93
80
Break points saved·Slight edge
95
90
Break points won·Even
94
96
Deciding sets·Clear edge
95
76
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
94
75

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
Form & Matchup
3.6Hard Elo 1748
Surface ELO
6.4+100 Hard Elo edge
3.3Overall Elo 1780
ELO gap
6.7Overall Elo 1894
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
6.1
Surface form
8.1
Fatigue & Travel
7.4
Minutes 14d
8.0
7.0
3-set count
8.0
Prev. match
9.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
64
74

Badosa P.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 74 games (7d) · Mertens E.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 61 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
27°CClear
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 45%

Draw