Francisco Cerundolo vs Alexander ZverevBuenos Aires Quarter-final

Buenos Aires · ATP · Quarter-final
#21ATP
1931ELO
1868Clay ELO
$1.9MYTD
$11MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 10 February 2025
clay
#3ATP
2100ELO
2051Clay ELO
$6.5MYTD
$66MCAREER
29 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWWLWWW
Cerundolo F.
3-6 6-3 6-2
Zverev A.
Cerundolo F.
3662
Zverev A.
6321

Francisco Cerundolo defeated Alexander Zverev 3-6 6-3 6-2 in the Buenos Aires quarter-final on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Alexander Zverev came in ranked #3, leading the head-to-head 5–2. Francisco Cerundolo narrowed the head-to-head to 5–3.

Key context

Head to head

25
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-04-13MunichQFclayAlexander Zverev5-7 6-0 6-2
2026-03-18Miami MastersQFhardAlexander Zverev6-1 6-2
2026-01-19Australian OpenR16hardAlexander Zverev6-2 6-4 6-4
2025-11-20Davis Cup Finals QF: ARG vs GERRRhardAlexander Zverev6-4 7-6(3)
2025-07-27Canada MastersR16hardAlexander Zverev6-4 1-0 RET
2025-04-23Madrid MastersR16clayFrancisco Cerundolo7-5 6-3
2024-04-22Madrid MastersR16clayFrancisco Cerundolo6-3 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Cerundolo F.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Zverev A.

Zverev A.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Cerundolo F.

Serve advantage — Zverev A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Cerundolo F.Zverev A.
23
Serve
64
100
Return
57

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
72%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
69%
74%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
55%
Service points won·Slight edge
62%
69%
Return points won·Even
41%
37%
Break points saved·Even
63%
61%
Aces / match·Dominant
3.5
7.8
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.6
1.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (87 vs 110). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
88
94
Break points saved·Even
98
100
Break points won·Even
86
90
Deciding sets·Slight edge
94
99
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
93
100

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Injury return: 28 days (−0.3)
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 28 days (−0.3)
Form & Matchup
3.0Clay Elo 1868
Surface ELO
7.0+183 Clay Elo edge
2.8Overall Elo 1931
ELO gap
7.2Overall Elo 2100
10.0
H2H
0.0
7.7
Surface form
7.9
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
Prev. match
7.0
8.1
Country comfort
6.0
Surface transition
6.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
97
45

Cerundolo F.: 11 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Zverev A.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 134 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
33°CClear
Wind 18 km/hHumidity 51%