Carson Branstine vs Katarzyna Kawa — Cancun 125 Quarter-final

Cancun 125 · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
USA
Carson Branstine
#535WTA
1594ELO
1512Hard ELO
25 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLLWWWLW
0 — 0
Sets
Monday, 10 February 2025
hard
Katarzyna Kawa
POL
Katarzyna Kawa
#142WTA
1664ELO
1489Hard ELO
33 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWWL
Branstine C.
6-0 6-3
Kawa K.
Branstine C.
662
Kawa K.
03–

Carson Branstine defeated Katarzyna Kawa 6-0 6-3 in the Cancun 125 quarter-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Katarzyna Kawa came in ranked #142.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Branstine C.serving54% hold

wins 52% of points on serve vs Kawa K.

Kawa K.serving52% hold

wins 51% of points on serve vs Branstine C.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
Branstine C.Kawa K.
1st serve in·Even
60%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
66%
62%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
45%
Service points won·Even
58%
55%
Return points won·Even
44%
46%
Break points saved·Even
54%
52%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.6
2.1
Double faults / match·Even
3.4
3.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (50 vs 82). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Branstine C.
4.2
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
Kawa K.
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 70 days (−1.2)
Form & Matchup
5.6+23 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.4Hard Elo 1489
4.7Overall Elo 1594
ELO gap
5.3Overall Elo 1664
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
3.2
Surface form
5.1
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
Surface transition
6.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Branstine C.Kawa K.
Freshness·
—
96

Kawa K.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast

Draw

Final
Arango E.
Branstine C.
6-26-1
Semi-finals
Arango E.
Jones F.
3-66-17-5
Branstine C.
Joint M.
6-26-3
Quarter-finals
Jones F.
Shymanovich I.
6-16-0
Arango E.
Janicijevic S.
6-17-5
Joint M.
Sierra S.
7-56-736-1
Branstine C.
Kawa K.
6-06-3
R16
Shymanovich I.
Preston T.
6-41-67-5
Arango E.
Stakusic M.
6-47-60
Sierra S.
Koevermans A.
7-56-3
Joint M.
Sieg M.
6-06-3
Branstine C.
Davis L.
7-646-2
Kawa K.
Chirico L.
6-26-1
Jones F.
Vickery S.
6-36-3
Janicijevic S.
Lepchenko V.
7-667-63
R32
Stakusic M.
Zhao C.
6-36-4
Arango E.
Osuigwe W.
6-46-4
Janicijevic S.
Burillo Escorihuela I.
6-36-4
Lepchenko V.
Mateas M.
6-34-66-3
Sierra S.
Tig P.
6-06-3
Koevermans A.
Riera J.
1-67-637-5
Sieg M.
Hinojosa Gomez J.
6-06-4
Joint M.
Chang H.
6-747-56-4
Branstine C.
Shibahara E.
6-23-67-62
Kawa K.
Pigossi L.
4-67-56-1
Chirico L.
Carle M.
6-36-4
Shymanovich I.
Maria T.
6-26-2
Preston T.
Rodriguez V.
6-24-66-4
Vickery S.
Jovic I.
6-37-5
Jones F.
Bolsova A.
7-56-4
Davis L.
Vedder E.
1-66-16-2