Mackenzie Mcdonald vs Adrian MannarinoQuimper CH Round of 32

Quimper CH · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#140ATP
1606ELO
1604Hard ELO
$240kYTD
$7.2MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLWLLW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 20 January 2025
hard
#49ATP
1673ELO
1647Hard ELO
$633kYTD
$15MCAREER
38 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLLWLWW
Mcdonald M.
3-6 6-4 6-4
Mannarino A.
Mcdonald M.
3662
Mannarino A.
6441

Mackenzie Mcdonald defeated Adrian Mannarino 3-6 6-4 6-4 in the Quimper CH round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Adrian Mannarino came in ranked #49, leading the head-to-head 2–0. Mackenzie Mcdonald claimed a first win over Adrian Mannarino in three meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 2–1.

Key context

Head to head

02
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-08-14Cincinnati MastersR16hardAdrian Mannarino6-4 3-0 RET
2020-10-26Nur-SultanQFhardAdrian Mannarino6-1 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Mcdonald M.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Mannarino A.

Mannarino A.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Mcdonald M.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Mcdonald M.Mannarino A.
25
Serve
38
10
Return
33

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
51%
Service points won·Even
64%
63%
Return points won·Even
38%
38%
Break points saved·Even
61%
58%
Aces / match·Even
4.9
4.5
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.2
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (91 vs 93). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
56
65
Break points saved·Even
96
96
Break points won·Even
66
66
Deciding sets·Dominant
45
72
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
44
38

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.7Hard Elo 1604
Surface ELO
5.3+43 Hard Elo edge
4.7Overall Elo 1606
ELO gap
5.3Overall Elo 1673
0.0
H2H
10.0
6.6
Surface form
2.9
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
1.9
Minutes 14d
4.8
4.0
3-set count
4.0
9.0
Prev. match
7.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
92
80

Mcdonald M.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d) · Mannarino A.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 46 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast