Madison Keys vs Elina Svitolina — Australian Open Quarter-final

Australian Open · WTA · Quarter-final
Madison Keys
USA19
Madison Keys
#22WTA
1987ELO
1920Hard ELO
$1.1MYTD
$24MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 13 January 2025
hard
Elina Svitolina
UKR28
Elina Svitolina
#8WTA
2070ELO
1997Hard ELO
$3.4MYTD
$30MCAREER
31 yrs · 174 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLWWWW
Keys M.
3-6 6-3 6-4
Svitolina E.
Keys M.
3662
Svitolina E.
6341

Madison Keys defeated Elina Svitolina 3-6 6-3 6-4 in the Australian Open quarter-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Elina Svitolina came in ranked #8, defending last year's round of 16, but Madison Keys had arrived on a 7-match winning run. Madison Keys extended the head-to-head to 4–2.

Key context

Head to head

3–2
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2022-01-10Adelaide 2R32hardMadison Keys6-2 6-4
2019-08-26US OpenR16hardElina Svitolina7-5 6-4
2019-01-14Australian OpenR16hardElina Svitolina6-2 1-6 6-1
2017-08-28US OpenR16hardMadison Keys7-6(2) 1-6 6-4
2015-08-24New HavenR32hardMadison Keys7-6(4) 4-2 RET
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Keys M.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Svitolina E.

Svitolina E.serving77% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Keys M.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Keys M.Svitolina E.
36
Serve
48
29
Return
57

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Keys M.Svitolina E.
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
46%
47%
Service points won·Even
60%
60%
Return points won·Even
44%
45%
Break points saved·Even
60%
60%
Aces / match·Even
4.2
3.7
Double faults / match·Even
3.4
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (66 vs 69). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Keys M.Svitolina E.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
94
89
Break points saved·Even
96
93
Break points won·Slight edge
90
99
Deciding sets·Even
97
99
Tiebreaks·Even
96
92

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Keys M.
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
Svitolina E.
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 147 days (−1.5)
Form & Matchup
4.1Hard Elo 1920
Surface ELO
5.9+77 Hard Elo edge
4.2Overall Elo 1987
ELO gap
5.8Overall Elo 2070
5.0
H2H
5.0
8.0
Surface form
5.0
9.07-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
2.2
Minutes 14d
4.0
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
6.5
Country comfort
6.2
Context
5.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Keys M.Svitolina E.
Freshness·Clear edge
84
98

Keys M.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 23 games (7d) · Svitolina E.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
23°CClear
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 66%

Draw

Final
Keys M.[19]
Sabalenka A.[1]
6-32-67-5
Semi-finals
Keys M.[19]
Swiatek I.[2]
5-76-17-68
Sabalenka A.[1]
Badosa P.[11]
6-46-2
Quarter-finals
Keys M.[19]
Svitolina E.[28]
3-66-36-4
Swiatek I.[2]
Navarro E.[8]
6-16-2
Sabalenka A.[1]
Pavlyuchenkova A.[27]
6-22-66-3
Badosa P.[11]
Gauff C.[3]
7-56-4
R16
Gauff C.[3]
Bencic B.
5-76-26-1
Keys M.[19]
Rybakina E.[6]
6-31-66-3
Swiatek I.[2]
Lys E.
6-06-1
Navarro E.[8]
Kasatkina D.[9]
6-45-77-5
Badosa P.[11]
Danilovic O.
6-17-62
Svitolina E.[28]
Kudermetova V.
6-46-1
Sabalenka A.[1]
Andreeva M.[14]
6-16-2
Pavlyuchenkova A.[27]
Vekic D.[18]
7-606-0
R32
Bencic B.
Osaka N.
7-630-0
Badosa P.[11]
Kostyuk M.[17]
6-44-66-3
Danilovic O.
Pegula J.[7]
7-636-1
Kasatkina D.[9]
Putintseva Y.[24]
7-56-1
Gauff C.[3]
Fernandez L.[30]
6-46-2
Lys E.
Cristian J.
4-66-36-3
Keys M.[19]
Collins D.[10]
6-46-4
Pavlyuchenkova A.[27]
Siegemund L.
6-16-2
Sabalenka A.[1]
Tauson C.
7-656-4
Swiatek I.[2]
Raducanu E.
6-16-0
Vekic D.[18]
Shnaider D.[12]
7-646-737-5
Andreeva M.[14]
Frech M.[23]
6-21-66-2
Navarro E.[8]
Jabeur O.
6-43-66-4
Rybakina E.[6]
Yastremska D.[32]
6-36-4
Svitolina E.[28]
Paolini J.[4]
2-66-46-0
Kudermetova V.
Haddad Maia B.[15]
6-46-2
R64
Danilovic O.
Samsonova L.[25]
6-16-2
Tauson C.
Maria T.
6-26-2
Raducanu E.
Anisimova A.
6-37-5
Collins D.[10]
Aiava D.
7-644-66-2
Jabeur O.
Osorio C.
7-56-3
Rybakina E.[6]
Jovic I.
6-06-3
Lys E.
Gracheva V.
6-23-66-4
Keys M.[19]
Ruse E.
7-612-67-5
Pegula J.[7]
Mertens E.
6-46-2
Osaka N.
Muchova K.[20]
1-66-16-3
Navarro E.[8]
Wang X.
6-33-66-4
Kudermetova V.
Boulter K.[22]
7-632-66-2
Paolini J.[4]
Zarazua R.
6-26-3
Cristian J.
Bronzetti L.
7-57-5
Andreeva M.[14]
Uchijima M.
6-43-67-68
Svitolina E.[28]
Dolehide C.
6-16-4
Shnaider D.[12]
Tomljanovic A.
6-47-5
Gauff C.[3]
Burrage J.
6-37-5
Badosa P.[11]
Gibson T.
6-16-0
Swiatek I.[2]
Sramkova R.
6-06-2
Pavlyuchenkova A.[27]
Potapova A.
7-622-66-2
Putintseva Y.[24]
Zhang S.
6-26-1
Frech M.[23]
Blinkova A.
0-66-06-2
Siegemund L.
Zheng Q.[5]
7-636-3
Kasatkina D.[9]
Wang Y.
6-26-0
Vekic D.[18]
Dart H.
4-66-06-2
Bencic B.
Lamens S.
6-17-63
Haddad Maia B.[15]
Andreeva E.
6-26-3
Kostyuk M.[17]
Niemeier J.
6-36-0
Yastremska D.[32]
Kovinic D.
6-06-1
Fernandez L.[30]
Bucsa C.
3-66-46-4
Sabalenka A.[1]
Bouzas Maneiro J.
6-37-5
R128
Pavlyuchenkova A.[27]
Yuan Y.
6-44-66-3
Kasatkina D.[9]
Tomova V.
6-16-3
Rybakina E.[6]
Jones E.
6-16-1
Raducanu E.
Alexandrova E.[26]
7-647-62
Danilovic O.
Rus A.
6-46-4
Vekic D.[18]
Parry D.
6-46-4
Uchijima M.
Linette M.
4-66-27-68
Collins D.[10]
Snigur D.
7-646-3
Sabalenka A.[1]
Stephens S.
6-36-2
Tomljanovic A.
Krueger A.
6-44-66-4
Muchova K.[20]
Podoroska N.
6-16-1
Burrage J.
Jeanjean L.
6-26-4
Mertens E.
Golubic V.
4-67-686-4
Kostyuk M.[17]
Hibino N.
3-66-36-1
Swiatek I.[2]
Siniakova K.
6-36-4
Sramkova R.
Volynets K.
3-66-26-2
Gracheva V.
Mcnally C.
6-36-4
Frech M.[23]
Kudermetova P.
6-46-4
Samsonova L.[25]
Rakhimova K.
6-26-4
Pegula J.[7]
Joint M.
6-36-0
Wang Y.
Bondar A.
3-66-36-4
Osorio C.
Sakkari M.[31]
6-46-746-4
Kudermetova V.
Gadecki O.
6-16-1
Anisimova A.
Carle M.
6-26-3
Bronzetti L.
Azarenka V.[21]
6-27-62
Badosa P.[11]
Wang X.
6-37-65
Keys M.[19]
Li A.
6-47-5
Dolehide C.
Bejlek S.
7-656-2
Paolini J.[4]
Wei S.
6-06-4
Potapova A.
Zidansek T.
6-27-5
Bencic B.
Ostapenko J.[16]
6-37-66
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Kartal S.
6-17-65
Boulter K.[22]
Marino R.
6-43-67-5
Tauson C.
Noskova L.[29]
5-76-36-4
Gibson T.
Sonmez Z.
3-67-656-1
Yastremska D.[32]
Sherif M.
6-16-4
Lys E.
Birrell K.
6-26-2
Jovic I.
Parrizas Diaz N.
6-26-1
Aiava D.
Minnen G.
5-77-57-65
Haddad Maia B.[15]
Riera J.
4-67-56-2
Niemeier J.
Chwalinska M.
6-06-1
Lamens S.
Erjavec V.
7-57-62
Fernandez L.[30]
Starodubtseva Y.
7-56-4
Jabeur O.
Kalinina A.
6-36-3
Siegemund L.
Baptiste H.
4-67-56-4
Wang X.
Grabher J.
6-17-5
Bucsa C.
Paquet C.
6-26-3
Dart H.
Fett J.
7-52-67-67
Navarro E.[8]
Stearns P.
6-757-657-5
Gauff C.[3]
Kenin S.
6-36-3
Osaka N.
Garcia C.
6-33-66-3
Maria T.
Pera B.
7-636-4
Ruse E.
Begu I.
6-46-0
Cristian J.
Martic P.
6-24-67-67
Andreeva E.
Zheng S.
6-17-66
Blinkova A.
Saville D.
1-66-47-5
Andreeva M.[14]
Bouzkova M.
6-36-3
Shnaider D.[12]
Cocciaretto E.
7-646-4
Zheng Q.[5]
Todoni A.
7-636-1
Zhang S.
Kessler M.
6-36-4
Putintseva Y.[24]
Avanesyan E.
4-67-56-2
Zarazua R.
Townsend T.
6-766-16-2
Svitolina E.[28]
Cirstea S.
6-46-4
Kovinic D.
Sun L.
6-37-5