Federico Arnaboldi vs Sho ShimabukuroNonthaburi 3 CH Round of 16

Nonthaburi 3 CH · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#527ATP
1328ELO
1300Hard ELO
26 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLWWLWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 13 January 2025
hard
#95ATP
1672ELO
1606Hard ELO
$268kYTD
$1.0MCAREER
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWWWLW
Arnaboldi F.
1-6 7-6 6-4
Shimabukuro S.
Arnaboldi F.
17762
Shimabukuro S.
66441

Federico Arnaboldi defeated Sho Shimabukuro 1-6 7-6 6-4 in the Nonthaburi 3 CH round of 16 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Sho Shimabukuro came in ranked #95, defending last year's round of 16.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Arnaboldi F.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Shimabukuro S.

Shimabukuro S.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Arnaboldi F.

Serve advantage — Shimabukuro S.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
60%
57%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
66%
72%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
47%
53%
Service points won·Slight edge
59%
64%
Return points won·Even
39%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
55%
63%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.4
6.2
Double faults / match·Even
3.1
2.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (69 vs 91). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
38
42
Break points saved·Dominant
41
88
Break points won·Clear edge
15
31
Deciding sets·Dominant
76
50
Tiebreaks·Dominant
80
38

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
1.7Hard Elo 1300
Surface ELO
8.3+306 Hard Elo edge
1.8Overall Elo 1328
ELO gap
8.2Overall Elo 1672
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
2.2
Surface form
4.3
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
9.1
Minutes 14d
9.2
8.0
Prev. match
9.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
83
96

Arnaboldi F.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d) · Shimabukuro S.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast