Peyton Stearns vs Maria SakkariAdelaide Qualifying Round 2

Adelaide · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Round 2
#60WTA
1804ELO
1755Hard ELO
$476kYTD
$3.7MCAREER
24 yrs · 173 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWLWLL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 6 January 2025
hard
#37WTA
1812ELO
1796Hard ELO
$901kYTD
$15MCAREER
30 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWLLLWWL
Stearns P.
6-4 6-7 6-3
Sakkari M.
Stearns P.
661062
Sakkari M.
471231

Peyton Stearns defeated Maria Sakkari 6-4 6-7 6-3 in the Adelaide qualifying round 2 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Maria Sakkari came in ranked #37. Peyton Stearns extended the head-to-head to 2–0.

Key context

  • Match story: Peyton Stearns closed it out in three sets, 6–4 6–7 6–3.

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-05-17StrasbourgR32clayPeyton Stearns3-6 1-6

Serve vs return

This season
Stearns P.serving61% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Sakkari M.

Sakkari M.serving59% hold

wins 54% of points on serve vs Stearns P.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Stearns P.Sakkari M.
34
Serve
24
37
Return
39

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
64%
64%
2nd serve points won·Even
44%
47%
Service points won·Even
57%
57%
Return points won·Even
43%
42%
Break points saved·Even
56%
56%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.4
2.8
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.9
3.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (58 vs 62). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
73
81
Break points saved·Even
90
94
Break points won·Slight edge
98
87
Deciding sets·Dominant
51
77
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
90
83

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.3Hard Elo 1755
Surface ELO
5.7+41 Hard Elo edge
4.6Overall Elo 1804
ELO gap
5.4Overall Elo 1812
5.0
H2H
5.0
5.4
Surface form
6.2
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
7.1
Minutes 14d
8.4
7.0
3-set count
4.0
Prev. match
9.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
100
81

Stearns P.: 15 days rest · Sakkari M.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast