Tommy Paul vs Rinky HijikataAdelaide Quarter-final

Adelaide · ATP · Quarter-final
#25ATP
1949ELO
1881Hard ELO
$1.7MYTD
$15MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 6 January 2025
hard
#82ATP
1748ELO
1694Hard ELO
$601kYTD
$4.1MCAREER
25 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWLWLW
Paul T.
6-3 6-4
Hijikata R.
Paul T.
662
Hijikata R.
340

Tommy Paul defeated Rinky Hijikata 6-3 6-4 in the Adelaide quarter-final on hard. The result followed the form book — Tommy Paul came in ranked #25, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's quarter-final. Tommy Paul extended the head-to-head to 2–0.

Key context

  • Match story: Tommy Paul closed it out in two sets, 6–3 6–4.

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-05-25Roland GarrosR128clayTommy Paul6-4 3-6 5-7 4-6

Serve vs return

This season
Paul T.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Hijikata R.

Hijikata R.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Paul T.

Serve advantage — Paul T.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Paul T.Hijikata R.
71
Serve
21
54
Return
26

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
61%
61%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
74%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
52%
Service points won·Even
66%
62%
Return points won·Even
39%
38%
Break points saved·Even
63%
62%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.3
4.3
Double faults / match·Even
2.1
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (66 vs 102). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
93
66
Break points saved·Even
99
95
Break points won·Dominant
87
26
Deciding sets·Clear edge
98
81
Tiebreaks·Even
96
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 70 days (−1.2)
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.4+188 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.6Hard Elo 1694
7.7Overall Elo 1949
ELO gap
2.3Overall Elo 1748
5.0
H2H
5.0
5.8
Surface form
7.2
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
9.3
Prev. match
9.0
6.1
Country comfort
6.3
Context
7.0
Defending pts
6.0
5.0
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
84
92

Paul T.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Hijikata R.: 11 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
21°COvercast
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 58%