Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francisco CerundoloAuckland Round of 16

Auckland · ATP · Round of 16
#165ATP
1632ELO
1592Hard ELO
$188kYTD
$6.3MCAREER
33 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWLWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 6 January 2025
hard
#22ATP
1931ELO
1880Hard ELO
$1.9MYTD
$11MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLWWL
Carballes Baena R.
6-2 7-5
Cerundolo F.
Carballes Baena R.
672
Cerundolo F.
250

Roberto Carballes Baena defeated Francisco Cerundolo 6-2 7-5 in the Auckland round of 16 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Francisco Cerundolo came in ranked #22, leading the head-to-head 3–0, defending last year's round of 16. Roberto Carballes Baena claimed a first win over Francisco Cerundolo in four meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 3–1.

Key context

Head to head

03
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-02-20Rio de JaneiroR32clayFrancisco Cerundolo4-6 6-3 6-3
2022-02-14Rio de JaneiroR16clayFrancisco Cerundolo6-3 6-2
2021-04-19BelgradeQ2hardFrancisco Cerundolo7-6(6) 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Carballes Baena R.serving70% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Cerundolo F.

Cerundolo F.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Carballes Baena R.

Serve advantage — Cerundolo F.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Carballes Baena R.Cerundolo F.
Serve
13
Return
67

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
64%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
52%
Service points won·Even
60%
63%
Return points won·Even
40%
41%
Break points saved·Even
60%
63%
Aces / match·Even
3.2
3.5
Double faults / match·Even
2.4
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (66 vs 87). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
61
88
Break points saved·Slight edge
93
98
Break points won·Dominant
58
86
Deciding sets·Dominant
64
94
Tiebreaks·Dominant
50
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 46 days (−0.7)
Form & Matchup
1.5Hard Elo 1592
Surface ELO
8.5+288 Hard Elo edge
1.4Overall Elo 1632
ELO gap
8.6Overall Elo 1931
5.0
H2H
5.0
3.5
Surface form
6.2
0.0Lost last 4
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
8.3
Minutes 14d
7.0
3-set count
6.0
Prev. match
Context
7.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
92
98

Carballes Baena R.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 12 games (7d) · Cerundolo F.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
21°CClear
Wind 23 km/hHumidity 48%