Kei Nishikori vs Denis ShapovalovHong Kong Round of 32

Hong Kong · ATP · Round of 32
#720ATP
1714ELO
1680Hard ELO
36 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWWLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 30 December 2024
hard
#41ATP
1771ELO
1775Hard ELO
$749kYTD
$15MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLLLWWL
Nishikori K.
6-2 6-3
Shapovalov D.
Nishikori K.
662
Shapovalov D.
230

Kei Nishikori defeated Denis Shapovalov 6-2 6-3 in the Hong Kong round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Denis Shapovalov came in ranked #41, leading the head-to-head 2–1, but Kei Nishikori had arrived on a 6-match winning run. Kei Nishikori narrowed the head-to-head to 2–2.

Key context

Head to head

12
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-04-23Madrid MastersR64clayDenis Shapovalov6-1 6-4
2018-07-30WashingtonR16hardKei Nishikori7-6(1) 6-3
2018-02-26AcapulcoR32hardDenis Shapovalov6-7(3) 6-3 6-1

Serve vs return

This season
Nishikori K.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Shapovalov D.

Shapovalov D.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Nishikori K.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Nishikori K.Shapovalov D.
Serve
25
Return
70

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
59%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
66%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
51%
Service points won·Even
61%
65%
Return points won·Even
39%
37%
Break points saved·Even
59%
63%
Aces / match·Dominant
2.4
7.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.1
5.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (64 vs 121). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
89
85
Break points saved·Even
97
99
Break points won·Even
74
71
Deciding sets·Slight edge
100
92
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
97
84

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 56 days (−0.7)
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 40 days (−0.7)
Form & Matchup
3.6Hard Elo 1680
Surface ELO
6.4+95 Hard Elo edge
3.8Overall Elo 1714
ELO gap
6.2Overall Elo 1771
5.0
H2H
5.0
8.7
Surface form
8.5
9.06-match win streak
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0
Opponent rise
2.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
98

Shapovalov D.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast