Lorenzo Sonego vs Brandon Nakashima — Hong Kong Round of 32

Hong Kong · ATP · Round of 32
Lorenzo Sonego
ITA
Lorenzo Sonego
#83ATP
1719ELO
1702Hard ELO
$435kYTD
$9.8MCAREER
31 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWLWLLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 30 December 2024
hard
Brandon Nakashima
USA6
Brandon Nakashima
#32ATP
1839ELO
1788Hard ELO
$990kYTD
$7.9MCAREER
24 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLWWL
Sonego L.
7-6 6-3
Nakashima B.
Sonego L.
7762
Nakashima B.
6430

Lorenzo Sonego defeated Brandon Nakashima 7-6 6-3 in the Hong Kong round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Brandon Nakashima came in ranked #32. Lorenzo Sonego extended the head-to-head to 2–0.

Key context

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-06-30WimbledonR32grassLorenzo Sonego6-7(5) 7-6(8) 7-6(2) 3-6 7-6(3)

Serve vs return

This season
Sonego L.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Nakashima B.

Nakashima B.serving93% hold

wins 73% of points on serve vs Sonego L.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Sonego L.Nakashima B.
41
Serve
61
38
Return
23

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Sonego L.Nakashima B.
1st serve in·Even
66%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
55%
Service points won·Even
66%
68%
Return points won·Even
34%
35%
Break points saved·Even
65%
66%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.3
8.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.2
1.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (119 vs 176). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Sonego L.Nakashima B.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
69
56
Break points saved·Even
99
99
Break points won·Dominant
45
13
Deciding sets·Slight edge
71
64
Tiebreaks·Even
88
89

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Sonego L.
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 56 days (−0.7)
Nakashima B.
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 56 days (−0.7)
Form & Matchup
4.3Hard Elo 1702
Surface ELO
5.7+86 Hard Elo edge
4.3Overall Elo 1719
ELO gap
5.7Overall Elo 1839
5.0
H2H
5.0
4.6
Surface form
3.2
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Sonego L.Nakashima B.
Freshness·Slight edge
79
88

Sonego L.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Nakashima B.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Final
Rublev A.[1]
Ruusuvuori E.
6-46-4
Muller A.
Nishikori K.
2-66-16-3
Semi-finals
Rublev A.[1]
Shang J.
4-66-26-3
Ruusuvuori E.
Ofner S.
4-67-56-3
Nishikori K.
Shang J.
4-3
Muller A.
Munar J.
4-67-656-4
Quarter-finals
Rublev A.[1]
Fils A.[8]
6-41-66-2
Shang J.
Tiafoe F.[3]
6-46-4
Ofner S.
Bautista Agut R.
6-46-4
Ruusuvuori E.
Kotov P.
6-37-64
Shang J.
Marozsan F.
1-66-36-4
Nishikori K.
Norrie C.
6-33-66-2
Muller A.
Fils A.[4]
3-66-36-1
Munar J.
Musetti L.[2]
2-67-647-5
R16
Rublev A.[1]
Broady L.
6-47-68
Shang J.
Van De Zandschulp B.
6-757-627-62
Ofner S.
Struff J.[5]
6-747-657-62
Kotov P.
Musetti L.[6]
6-46-3
Tiafoe F.[3]
Kecmanovic M.
6-37-64
Fils A.[8]
Huesler M.
7-57-5
Ruusuvuori E.
Khachanov K.[2]
7-622-66-2
Bautista Agut R.
Cerundolo F.[4]
7-56-3
Shang J.
Martinez P.[7]
6-36-1
Fils A.[4]
Bergs Z.
7-676-4
Musetti L.[2]
Diallo G.
6-46-3
Marozsan F.
Rublev A.[1]
7-53-66-3
Nishikori K.
Khachanov K.[3]
4-66-37-5
Norrie C.
Sonego L.
6-24-66-1
Munar J.
Borges N.[5]
6-37-5
Muller A.
Kecmanovic M.
5-77-667-610
R32
Musetti L.
Wong C.
6-47-5
Fils A.[8]
Gojo B.
6-34-66-1
Huesler M.
Sachko V.
6-46-4
Shang J.
Djere L.[7]
6-756-37-68
Bautista Agut R.
Marozsan F.
6-26-3
Ofner S.
Mcdonald M.
6-16-2
Musetti L.[6]
Wong C.
6-47-5
Kotov P.
Borges N.
6-26-4
Broady L.
Cachin P.
6-46-0
Struff J.[5]
Cilic M.
3-67-647-67
Ruusuvuori E.
Bonzi B.
6-756-26-1
Kecmanovic M.
Daniel T.
6-36-2
Van De Zandschulp B.
Mochizuki S.
7-56-1
Nishikori K.
Shapovalov D.
6-26-3
Muller A.
Huesler M.
2-66-46-3
Bergs Z.
Moro Canas A.
6-46-4
Borges N.[5]
Yunchaokete B.
3-66-37-66
Munar J.
Davidovich Fokina A.
4-66-36-3
Diallo G.
Carballes Baena R.
4-67-647-5
Marozsan F.
Safiullin R.
6-17-69
Kecmanovic M.
Darderi L.[8]
6-36-3
Shang J.
Wong C.
7-636-4
Norrie C.
Tien L.
6-37-5
Sonego L.
Nakashima B.[6]
7-646-3
Martinez P.[7]
Passaro F.
6-46-4