Fabian Marozsan vs Andrey RublevHong Kong Round of 16

Hong Kong · ATP · Round of 16
#53ATP
1784ELO
1747Hard ELO
$728kYTD
$4.6MCAREER
26 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLWLL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 30 December 2024
hard
#13ATP
1902ELO
1849Hard ELO
$1.6MYTD
$34MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWWLWWW
Marozsan F.
7-5 3-6 6-3
Rublev A.
Marozsan F.
7362
Rublev A.
5631

Fabian Marozsan defeated Andrey Rublev 7-5 3-6 6-3 in the Hong Kong round of 16 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Andrey Rublev came in ranked #13, leading the head-to-head 3–1. Fabian Marozsan narrowed the head-to-head to 3–2.

Key context

  • Match story: Fabian Marozsan closed it out in three sets, 7–5 3–6 6–3.

Head to head

13
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-02-16DohaR16hardAndrey Rublev6-2 6-4
2025-05-07Rome MastersR64clayFabian Marozsan7-5 4-6 6-3
2025-02-03RotterdamR16hardAndrey Rublev7-6(2) 7-6(7)
2024-07-22UmagQFclayAndrey Rublev5-7 6-3 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Marozsan F.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Rublev A.

Rublev A.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Marozsan F.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Marozsan F.Rublev A.
31
Serve
55
45
Return
52

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
61%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
70%
76%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
52%
Service points won·Even
63%
67%
Return points won·Even
36%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
66%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.7
7.9
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.3
2.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (123 vs 150). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
71
89
Break points saved·Even
97
100
Break points won·Dominant
36
72
Deciding sets·Clear edge
82
97
Tiebreaks·Even
95
92

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 56 days (−0.7)
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 49 days (−0.7)
Form & Matchup
3.9Hard Elo 1747
Surface ELO
6.1+102 Hard Elo edge
3.9Overall Elo 1784
ELO gap
6.2Overall Elo 1902
5.0
H2H
5.0
4.1
Surface form
3.2
Win streak
0.0Lost last 4
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
93
93

Marozsan F.: 10 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Rublev A.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast