Naomi Osaka vs Hailey BaptisteAuckland Quarter-final

Auckland · WTA · Quarter-final
#14WTA
1987ELO
1922Hard ELO
$1.1MYTD
$26MCAREER
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 30 December 2024
hard
#30WTA
1844ELO
1781Hard ELO
$1.1MYTD
$3.6MCAREER
24 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWWWWL
Osaka N.
6-7 6-1 6-2
Baptiste H.
Osaka N.
62662
Baptiste H.
77121

Naomi Osaka defeated Hailey Baptiste 6-7 6-1 6-2 in the Auckland quarter-final on hard. The result followed the form book — Naomi Osaka came in ranked #14, leading the head-to-head 2–0. Naomi Osaka extended the head-to-head to 3–0.

Key context

Head to head

20
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-08-25US OpenR64hardNaomi Osaka6-3 6-1
2025-03-18MiamiR32hardNaomi Osaka7-6(6) 3-6 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Osaka N.serving85% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Baptiste H.

Baptiste H.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Osaka N.

Serve advantage — Osaka N.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Osaka N.Baptiste H.
70
Serve
40
60
Return
18

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
56%
57%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
74%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
49%
Service points won·Even
63%
60%
Return points won·Even
42%
42%
Break points saved·Even
60%
60%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.6
4.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.9
4.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (96 vs 129). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
91
83
Break points saved·Even
96
93
Break points won·Clear edge
97
79
Deciding sets·Slight edge
99
88
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
95
87

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Injury return: 96 days (−1.5)
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 70 days (−1.2)
Form & Matchup
6.5+141 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.5Hard Elo 1781
6.3Overall Elo 1987
ELO gap
3.7Overall Elo 1844
5.0
H2H
5.0
7.0
Surface form
6.8
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
82

Osaka N.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 44 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
24°CPartly cloudy
Wind 20 km/hHumidity 49%

Draw