Reilly Opelka vs Matteo Arnaldi — Brisbane Round of 16

Brisbane · ATP · Round of 16
Reilly Opelka
USA
Reilly Opelka
#115ATP
1749ELO
1734Hard ELO
$325kYTD
$6.0MCAREER
28 yrs · 211 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLWWLWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 30 December 2024
hard
Matteo Arnaldi
ITA
Matteo Arnaldi
#35ATP
1830ELO
1732Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWWL
Opelka R.
7-6 7-6
Arnaldi M.
Opelka R.
711772
Arnaldi M.
69640

Reilly Opelka defeated Matteo Arnaldi 7-6 7-6 in the Brisbane round of 16 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Matteo Arnaldi came in ranked #35.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Opelka R.serving92% hold

wins 72% of points on serve vs Arnaldi M.

Arnaldi M.serving92% hold

wins 72% of points on serve vs Opelka R.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Opelka R.Arnaldi M.
86
Serve
23
0
Return
22

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Opelka R.Arnaldi M.
1st serve in·Slight edge
64%
57%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
79%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
50%
Service points won·Slight edge
70%
62%
Return points won·Slight edge
29%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
72%
61%
Aces / match·Dominant
17.0
6.4
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.8
3.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (90 vs 117). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Opelka R.Arnaldi M.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
63
78
Break points saved·Even
100
97
Break points won·Dominant
1
51
Deciding sets·Even
88
86
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
93
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Opelka R.
4.3
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 63 days (−1.2)
Arnaldi M.
4.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 63 days (−1.2)
Form & Matchup
5.7+2 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.3Hard Elo 1732
5.4Overall Elo 1749
ELO gap
4.6Overall Elo 1830
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
3.7
Surface form
3.4
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Opelka R.Arnaldi M.
Freshness·
—
95

Arnaldi M.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
27°CDrizzle
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 64%
Final
Dimitrov G.[2]
Rune H.[1]
7-656-4
Lehecka J.
Opelka R.
4-1
Semi-finals
Dimitrov G.[2]
Thompson J.
6-37-5
Rune H.[1]
Safiullin R.
6-47-60
Lehecka J.
Dimitrov G.[2]
6-44-4
Opelka R.
Mpetshi Perricard G.
6-37-64
Quarter-finals
Thompson J.
Nadal R.
5-77-666-3
Safiullin R.
Arnaldi M.
7-646-2
Dimitrov G.[2]
Hijikata R.
6-16-4
Rune H.[1]
Duckworth J.
6-27-66
Mpetshi Perricard G.
Mensik J.
7-57-65
Dimitrov G.[2]
Thompson J.[8]
6-12-1
Lehecka J.
Jarry N.
6-46-4
Opelka R.
Djokovic N.[1]
7-666-3
R16
Safiullin R.
Popyrin A.
6-796-47-63
Arnaldi M.
Klein L.
6-43-67-5
Dimitrov G.[2]
Altmaier D.
6-16-2
Thompson J.
Humbert U.[4]
W/O
Rune H.[1]
Shevchenko A.
6-45-76-2
Nadal R.
Kubler J.
6-16-2
Hijikata R.
Machac T.
5-76-27-64
Duckworth J.
Hanfmann Y.
4-66-17-62
Opelka R.
Arnaldi M.
7-697-64
Mensik J.
Lajovic D.
6-36-2
Mpetshi Perricard G.
Tiafoe F.[4]
6-47-64
Jarry N.
Bonzi B.
6-26-3
Lehecka J.
Nishioka Y.
6-26-756-4
Thompson J.[8]
Michelsen A.
7-56-3
Djokovic N.[1]
Monfils G.
6-36-3
Dimitrov G.[2]
Vukic A.
6-27-65
R32
Kubler J.
Karatsev A.[8]
6-46-740-0
Hanfmann Y.
Korda S.[5]
7-56-4
Altmaier D.
Tu L.
7-657-64
Dimitrov G.[2]
Murray A.
4-67-56-2
Shevchenko A.
Van Assche L.
6-36-2
Duckworth J.
Wolf J.
6-36-4
Arnaldi M.
Fucsovics M.
6-756-47-67
Klein L.
Baez S.[6]
4-66-36-4
Nadal R.
Thiem D.
7-56-1
Thompson J.
Vukic A.
6-36-2
Machac T.
Etcheverry T.[7]
6-757-57-61
Hijikata R.
Kokkinakis T.
7-686-2
Safiullin R.
Shelton B.[3]
6-36-756-3
Rune H.[1]
Purcell M.
4-66-46-2
Popyrin A.
Oconnell C.
6-46-757-64
Humbert U.[4]
Michelsen A.
6-46-4
Mpetshi Perricard G.
Kyrgios N.
7-626-747-63
Tiafoe F.[4]
Walton A.
7-656-3
Lajovic D.
Cazaux A.
6-46-4
Lehecka J.
Rune H.[3]
7-56-3
Djokovic N.[1]
Hijikata R.
6-36-3
Thompson J.[8]
Berrettini M.
3-66-36-4
Dimitrov G.[2]
Hanfmann Y.
7-656-3
Opelka R.
Gomez F.
7-56-4
Michelsen A.
Oconnell C.
6-44-67-610
Mensik J.
Kukushkin M.
7-636-4
Jarry N.
Navone M.
7-57-67
Monfils G.
Basavareddy N.
6-44-66-1
Nishioka Y.
Rinderknech A.
6-36-4
Bonzi B.
Tabilo A.[6]
6-787-656-4
Arnaldi M.
Popyrin A.[7]
6-36-2
Vukic A.
Goffin D.
6-26-3