Karolina Muchova vs Jasmine PaoliniUnited Cup Quarter-final

United Cup · WTA · Quarter-final
#9WTA
2066ELO
2034Hard ELO
$2.0MYTD
$12MCAREER
29 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Friday, 27 December 2024
hard
#17WTA
1905ELO
1873Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$16MCAREER
30 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWLL
Muchova K.
6-2 6-2
Paolini J.
Muchova K.
662
Paolini J.
220

Karolina Muchova defeated Jasmine Paolini 6-2 6-2 in the United Cup quarter-final on hard. The result followed the form book — Karolina Muchova came in ranked #9, leading the head-to-head 2–0. Karolina Muchova extended the head-to-head to 3–0.

Key context

Head to head

20
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-08-26US OpenR16hardKarolina Muchova6-3 6-3
2021-01-31Gippsland TrophyR16hardKarolina Muchova6-2 4-6 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Muchova K.serving77% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Paolini J.

Paolini J.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Muchova K.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Muchova K.Paolini J.
70
Serve
31
44
Return
55

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
62%
68%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
68%
62%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
49%
Service points won·Even
61%
58%
Return points won·Even
43%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
55%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.8
1.5
Double faults / match·Even
1.9
1.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (92 vs 138). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
95
89
Break points saved·Slight edge
98
87
Break points won·Slight edge
94
99
Deciding sets·Even
98
97
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
99
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Injury return: 74 days (−1.2)
4.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 44 days (−0.7)
Form & Matchup
7.0+162 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.0Hard Elo 1873
6.9Overall Elo 2066
ELO gap
3.1Overall Elo 1905
5.0
H2H
5.0
7.9
Surface form
5.2
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
51
76

Muchova K.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 113 games (7d) · Paolini J.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 46 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast