Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Pablo Carreno BustaMontemar CH Round of 16

Montemar CH · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#118ATP
1620ELO
1582Clay ELO
$293kYTD
$747kCAREER
19 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLLLWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 18 November 2024
clay
#65ATP
1801ELO
1767Clay ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
Budkov Kjaer N.
6-7 6-4 6-4
Carreno Busta P.
Budkov Kjaer N.
62662
Carreno Busta P.
77441

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer defeated Pablo Carreno Busta 6-7 6-4 6-4 in the Montemar CH round of 16 on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Pablo Carreno Busta came in ranked #65.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Budkov Kjaer N.serving72% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Carreno Busta P.serving72% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Budkov Kjaer N.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
64%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
51%
Service points won·Even
62%
63%
Return points won·Even
40%
39%
Break points saved·Even
58%
59%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.3
3.2
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.5
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (109 vs 115). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
67
78
Break points saved·Clear edge
78
97
Break points won·Clear edge
39
61
Deciding sets·Clear edge
96
80
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
81
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Extended break: 35 days (−0.7)
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 28 days (−0.3)
Form & Matchup
4.0Clay Elo 1582
Surface ELO
6.0+184 Clay Elo edge
4.2Overall Elo 1620
ELO gap
5.8Overall Elo 1801
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
Surface form
3.5
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
Prev. match
9.0
6.0
Surface transition
6.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
100
94

Budkov Kjaer N.: 19 days rest · Carreno Busta P.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast