Holger Rune vs Matteo Arnaldi — Paris Masters Round of 64

Paris Masters · ATP · Round of 64
Holger Rune
DEN13
Holger Rune
#77ATP
1757ELO
1725Hard ELO
$0YTD
$16MCAREER
23 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 28 October 2024
hard
Matteo Arnaldi
ITA
Matteo Arnaldi
#35ATP
1830ELO
1732Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWWL
Rune H.
6-4 6-4
Arnaldi M.
Rune H.
662
Arnaldi M.
440

Holger Rune defeated Matteo Arnaldi 6-4 6-4 in the Paris Masters round of 64 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Matteo Arnaldi came in ranked #35, but Holger Rune had arrived on a 3-match winning run.

Key context

  • Match story: Holger Rune edged a tight contest from start to finish — 6–4 6–4.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Rune H.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Arnaldi M.

Arnaldi M.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Rune H.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Rune H.Arnaldi M.
47
Serve
23
58
Return
22

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Rune H.Arnaldi M.
1st serve in·Even
61%
57%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
50%
Service points won·Even
66%
62%
Return points won·Even
36%
37%
Break points saved·Even
64%
61%
Aces / match·Even
6.0
6.4
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.9
3.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (120 vs 117). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Rune H.Arnaldi M.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
91
78
Break points saved·Even
99
97
Break points won·Dominant
84
51
Deciding sets·Clear edge
98
86
Tiebreaks·Even
99
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Rune H.
7.5
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Arnaldi M.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.8Hard Elo 1725
Surface ELO
4.2+8 Hard Elo edge
5.6Overall Elo 1757
ELO gap
4.4Overall Elo 1830
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
6.8
Surface form
4.3
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
6.7
Minutes 14d
8.5
3-set count
7.0
9.0
Prev. match
6.0
6.6
Country comfort
Context
7.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Rune H.Arnaldi M.
Freshness·
—
94

Arnaldi M.: 11 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
14°COvercast
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 92%
Final
Zverev A.[3]
Humbert U.[15]
6-26-2
Semi-finals
Humbert U.[15]
Khachanov K.
6-766-46-3
Zverev A.[3]
Rune H.[13]
6-37-64
Quarter-finals
Rune H.[13]
De Minaur A.[9]
6-44-67-5
Khachanov K.
Dimitrov G.[8]
6-26-3
Zverev A.[3]
Tsitsipas S.[10]
7-56-4
Humbert U.[15]
Thompson J.
6-27-64
R16
Humbert U.[15]
Alcaraz C.[2]
6-13-67-5
Rune H.[13]
Cazaux A.
3-66-36-4
De Minaur A.[9]
Draper J.
5-76-26-3
Zverev A.[3]
Fils A.
6-43-66-3
Tsitsipas S.[10]
Cerundolo F.
6-716-46-2
Dimitrov G.[8]
Rinderknech A.
6-24-67-65
Khachanov K.
Popyrin A.
7-656-4
Thompson J.
Mannarino A.
7-57-65
R32
Fils A.
Struff J.
6-36-4
Tsitsipas S.[10]
Tabilo A.
6-36-4
Thompson J.
Ruud C.[7]
7-633-66-4
Rinderknech A.
Michelsen A.
7-667-67
Draper J.
Fritz T.[5]
7-664-66-4
Zverev A.[3]
Griekspoor T.
7-626-3
Cerundolo F.
Rublev A.[6]
7-667-65
Dimitrov G.[8]
Etcheverry T.
6-796-37-5
Khachanov K.
Mpetshi Perricard G.
6-7126-16-4
De Minaur A.[9]
Kecmanovic M.
6-47-65
Mannarino A.
Bergs Z.
3-66-26-4
Humbert U.[15]
Giron M.
6-36-2
Alcaraz C.[2]
Jarry N.
7-56-1
Popyrin A.
Medvedev D.[4]
6-42-67-64
Cazaux A.
Shelton B.
6-37-64
Rune H.[13]
Bublik A.
6-46-2
R64
De Minaur A.[9]
Navone M.
7-56-1
Struff J.
Musetti L.[16]
6-46-2
Etcheverry T.
Zhang Z.
6-37-66
Khachanov K.
Oconnell C.
6-43-67-66
Giron M.
Shang J.
7-667-66
Rinderknech A.
Machac T.
6-735-3
Michelsen A.
Hurkacz H.[12]
6-16-3
Tabilo A.
Borges N.
3-67-656-3
Draper J.
Lehecka J.
7-56-2
Fils A.
Cilic M.
7-656-4
Kecmanovic M.
Baez S.
6-46-767-5
Griekspoor T.
Darderi L.
6-36-4
Bublik A.
Fognini F.
7-57-5
Rune H.[13]
Arnaldi M.
6-46-4
Thompson J.
Martinez P.
6-46-4
Bergs Z.
Gasquet R.
6-36-4
Mannarino A.
Paul T.[11]
6-37-5
Humbert U.[15]
Nakashima B.
6-34-66-4
Jarry N.
Sonego L.
7-646-3
Mpetshi Perricard G.
Tiafoe F.[14]
6-757-646-3
Cerundolo F.
Halys Q.
7-656-3
Shelton B.
Moutet C.
6-36-786-3
Tsitsipas S.[10]
Carballes Baena R.
4-66-36-3
Popyrin A.
Berrettini M.
7-57-62