David Goffin vs Matteo ArnaldiBasel Round of 32

Basel · ATP · Round of 32
#251ATP
1665ELO
1626Hard ELO
35 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLLLLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 21 October 2024
hard
#34ATP
1830ELO
1732Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWWL
Goffin D.
6-7 6-3 6-2
Arnaldi M.
Goffin D.
65662
Arnaldi M.
77321

David Goffin defeated Matteo Arnaldi 6-7 6-3 6-2 in the Basel round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Matteo Arnaldi came in ranked #34.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Goffin D.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Arnaldi M.

Arnaldi M.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Goffin D.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Goffin D.Arnaldi M.
Serve
23
Return
22

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
58%
56%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
50%
Service points won·Even
62%
62%
Return points won·Even
39%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
56%
61%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.7
6.3
Double faults / match·Even
3.1
3.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (124 vs 117). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
82
78
Break points saved·Even
96
97
Break points won·Clear edge
64
51
Deciding sets·Slight edge
96
86
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
81
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.3Hard Elo 1626
Surface ELO
5.7+107 Hard Elo edge
4.2Overall Elo 1665
ELO gap
5.8Overall Elo 1830
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
8.1
Surface form
5.4
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
9.0
Prev. match
6.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
97

Arnaldi M.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast