Varvara Gracheva vs Hailey BaptisteHong Kong 125 Round of 16

Hong Kong 125 · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#95WTA
1810ELO
1763Hard ELO
25 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLWWWLW
0 — 0
Sets
Monday, 30 September 2024
hard
#33WTA
1844ELO
1781Hard ELO
$1.1MYTD
$3.6MCAREER
24 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWWWWL
Gracheva V.
6-3 6-3
Baptiste H.
Gracheva V.
662
Baptiste H.
33

Varvara Gracheva defeated Hailey Baptiste 6-3 6-3 in the Hong Kong 125 round of 16 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Hailey Baptiste came in ranked #33, leading the head-to-head 1–0. Varvara Gracheva claimed a first win over Hailey Baptiste in two meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 1–1.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-09-25BeijingR128hardHailey Baptiste6-0 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Gracheva V.serving59% hold

wins 53% of points on serve vs Baptiste H.

Baptiste H.serving63% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Gracheva V.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Gracheva V.Baptiste H.
3
Serve
40
27
Return
18

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
63%
57%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
61%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
49%
Service points won·Even
56%
60%
Return points won·Even
44%
42%
Break points saved·Slight edge
52%
60%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.0
4.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.4
4.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (126 vs 129). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
74
83
Break points saved·Clear edge
76
93
Break points won·Slight edge
87
79
Deciding sets·Even
90
88
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
65
87

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.8Hard Elo 1763
Surface ELO
5.2+17 Hard Elo edge
4.5Overall Elo 1810
ELO gap
5.5Overall Elo 1844
0.0
H2H
10.0
3.7
Surface form
6.1
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
8.6
Minutes 14d
5.9
3-set count
7.0
9.0
Prev. match
9.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast