Tommy Paul vs Matteo ArnaldiTokyo Round of 32

Tokyo · ATP · Round of 32
#25ATP
1949ELO
1881Hard ELO
$1.7MYTD
$15MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 25 September 2024
hard
#35ATP
1830ELO
1732Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWWL
Paul T.
6-3 6-2
Arnaldi M.
Paul T.
662
Arnaldi M.
320

Tommy Paul defeated Matteo Arnaldi 6-3 6-2 in the Tokyo round of 32 on hard. The result followed the form book — Tommy Paul came in ranked #25, defending last year's quarter-final.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Paul T.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Arnaldi M.

Arnaldi M.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Paul T.

Serve advantage — Paul T.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Paul T.Arnaldi M.
71
Serve
23
54
Return
22

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
62%
56%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
50%
Service points won·Even
66%
62%
Return points won·Even
40%
37%
Break points saved·Even
65%
62%
Aces / match·Even
6.0
6.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.9
3.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (130 vs 117). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
93
78
Break points saved·Even
99
97
Break points won·Dominant
87
51
Deciding sets·Clear edge
98
86
Tiebreaks·Even
96
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 44 days (−0.7)
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.3+149 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.7Hard Elo 1732
7.5Overall Elo 1949
ELO gap
2.5Overall Elo 1830
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
4.5
Surface form
7.1
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
7.8
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
2.0
Context
7.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
84
94

Paul T.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Arnaldi M.: 11 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
23°COvercast
Wind 31 km/hHumidity 64%