Alexei Popyrin vs Andrey RublevCanada Masters Final

Canada Masters · ATP · Final
#103ATP
1741ELO
1681Hard ELO
$563kYTD
$9.7MCAREER
26 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLLWWLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 5 August 2024
hard
#13ATP
1902ELO
1849Hard ELO
$1.6MYTD
$34MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWWLWWW
Popyrin A.
6-2 6-4
Rublev A.
Popyrin A.
662
Rublev A.
240

Alexei Popyrin defeated Andrey Rublev 6-2 6-4 in the Canada Masters final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Andrey Rublev came in ranked #13, leading the head-to-head 2–1, defending last year's round of 32. Alexei Popyrin narrowed the head-to-head to 2–2.

Key context

Head to head

12
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-08-07Cincinnati MastersR32hardAndrey Rublev6-7(5) 7-6(5) 7-5
2024-04-08Monte Carlo MastersR32clayAlexei Popyrin6-4 6-4
2023-10-23ViennaR32hardAndrey Rublev7-6(5) 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Popyrin A.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Rublev A.

Rublev A.serving92% hold

wins 72% of points on serve vs Popyrin A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Popyrin A.Rublev A.
40
Serve
55
11
Return
52

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
75%
76%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
52%
Service points won·Even
66%
67%
Return points won·Even
34%
37%
Break points saved·Even
65%
66%
Aces / match·Clear edge
9.7
7.9
Double faults / match·Even
2.9
2.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (106 vs 150). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
59
88
Break points saved·Even
99
100
Break points won·Dominant
6
72
Deciding sets·Clear edge
75
97
Tiebreaks·Even
93
92

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
7.5
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.9Hard Elo 1681
Surface ELO
7.1+168 Hard Elo edge
3.0Overall Elo 1741
ELO gap
7.0Overall Elo 1902
0.0
H2H
10.0
7.2
Surface form
5.6
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
9.2
Minutes 14d
3.7
3-set count
4.0
Prev. match
8.0
6.0
Surface transition
Context
5.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
97
94

Popyrin A.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Rublev A.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
25°CDrizzle
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 72%
Final
Popyrin A.
Rublev A.[5]
6-26-4