Maks Kasnikowski vs Camilo Ugo CarabelliPoznan CH Final

Poznan CH · CHALLENGER · Final
#284ATP
1400ELO
1418Clay ELO
23 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLWWWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 17 June 2024
clay
#59ATP
1759ELO
1741Clay ELO
$653kYTD
$2.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWLWLW
Kasnikowski M.
3-6 6-4 6-3
Ugo Carabelli C.
Kasnikowski M.
3662
Ugo Carabelli C.
6431

Maks Kasnikowski defeated Camilo Ugo Carabelli 3-6 6-4 6-3 in the Poznan CH final on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Camilo Ugo Carabelli came in ranked #59.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Kasnikowski M.serving70% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Ugo Carabelli C.

Ugo Carabelli C.serving68% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Kasnikowski M.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Kasnikowski M.Ugo Carabelli C.
Serve
24
Return
36

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
59%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
48%
Service points won·Even
62%
60%
Return points won·Even
39%
40%
Break points saved·Even
59%
61%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.9
2.7
Double faults / match·Even
2.1
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (118 vs 175). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
14
78
Break points saved·Dominant
56
90
Break points won·Dominant
16
62
Deciding sets·Dominant
19
96
Tiebreaks·Dominant
38
72

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
1.5Clay Elo 1418
Surface ELO
8.5+323 Clay Elo edge
0.8Overall Elo 1400
ELO gap
9.2Overall Elo 1759
0.0No prior meetings
H2H
10.0
6.2
Surface form
1.6
Win streak
0.0Lost last 5
Fatigue & Travel
2.9
Minutes 14d
9.1
4.0
3-set count
8.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
55
97

Kasnikowski M.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 87 games (7d) · Ugo Carabelli C.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast