Kamil Majchrzak vs Pablo Carreno BustaPoznan CH Round of 16

Poznan CH · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#66ATP
1801ELO
1723Clay ELO
$617kYTD
$3.8MCAREER
30 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 17 June 2024
clay
#65ATP
1801ELO
1767Clay ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLWWWWLW
Majchrzak K.
7-5 4-6 7-6
Carreno Busta P.
Majchrzak K.
74772
Carreno Busta P.
56621

Kamil Majchrzak defeated Pablo Carreno Busta 7-5 4-6 7-6 in the Poznan CH round of 16 on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Pablo Carreno Busta came in ranked #65, leading the head-to-head 1–0, but Kamil Majchrzak had arrived on a 7-match winning run. Kamil Majchrzak claimed a first win over Pablo Carreno Busta in two meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 1–1.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-01-13Australian OpenR128hardPablo Carreno Busta6-4 6-4 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Majchrzak K.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Carreno Busta P.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Majchrzak K.

Serve advantage — Majchrzak K.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
51%
Service points won·Even
66%
63%
Return points won·Even
39%
39%
Break points saved·Slight edge
66%
59%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.4
3.1
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.5
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (137 vs 115). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
68
78
Break points saved·Even
97
97
Break points won·Slight edge
51
61
Deciding sets·Slight edge
73
80
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
75
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.9Clay Elo 1723
Surface ELO
5.1+43 Clay Elo edge
5.0Overall Elo 1801
ELO gap
5.0Overall Elo 1801
5.0
H2H
5.0
7.5
Surface form
3.5
9.07-match win streak
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
1.2
Minutes 14d
8.8
0.0
3-set count
9.0
Prev. match
7.0
6.0
Surface transition
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
92
94

Majchrzak K.: 12 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Carreno Busta P.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast