Maria Lourdes Carle vs Emiliana ArangoRome Qualifying Round 1

Rome · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Round 1
#218WTA
1484ELO
1461Clay ELO
26 yrs · 166 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWWLLW
0 — 0
Sets
Monday, 6 May 2024
clay
#96WTA
1624ELO
1553Clay ELO
25 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWWWLLL
Carle M.
6-3 7-5
Arango E.
Carle M.
672
Arango E.
35

Maria Lourdes Carle defeated Emiliana Arango 6-3 7-5 in the Rome qualifying round 1 on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Emiliana Arango came in ranked #96, leading the head-to-head 2–0, but Maria Lourdes Carle had been the form player, winning 2 of their last 4 on clay. Maria Lourdes Carle claimed a first win over Emiliana Arango in three meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 2–1.

Key context

Head to head

02
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-03-30BogotaR32clayEmiliana Arango1-6 6-2 6-0
2025-02-24MeridaR32hardEmiliana Arango6-2 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Carle M.serving32% hold

wins 43% of points on serve vs Arango E.

Arango E.serving28% hold

wins 41% of points on serve vs Carle M.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
69%
69%
1st serve points won·Even
59%
58%
2nd serve points won·Even
39%
42%
Service points won·Even
52%
53%
Return points won·Even
49%
46%
Break points saved·Even
51%
53%
Aces / match·Even
0.7
1.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
5.2
3.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (139 vs 126). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
27
57
Break points saved·Dominant
26
56
Break points won·Clear edge
97
81
Deciding sets·Clear edge
55
70
Tiebreaks·Dominant
5
75

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.6Clay Elo 1461
Surface ELO
6.4+92 Clay Elo edge
3.2Overall Elo 1484
ELO gap
6.8Overall Elo 1624
5.0
H2H
5.0
8.9
Surface form
5.3
Fatigue & Travel
6.9
Minutes 14d
7.2
3-set count
0.0
7.0
Prev. match
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
88
89

Carle M.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 38 games (7d) · Arango E.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 33 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast