Matteo Arnaldi vs Alexander Bublik — Miami Masters Round of 64

Miami Masters · ATP · Round of 64
Matteo Arnaldi
ITA
Matteo Arnaldi
#35ATP
1830ELO
1732Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 18 March 2024
hard
Alexander Bublik
KAZ17
Alexander Bublik
#11ATP
1889ELO
1837Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$12MCAREER
29 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLLWWLL
Arnaldi M.
6-4 6-1
Bublik A.
Arnaldi M.
662
Bublik A.
410

Matteo Arnaldi defeated Alexander Bublik 6-4 6-1 in the Miami Masters round of 64 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Alexander Bublik came in ranked #11, defending last year's round of 128.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Arnaldi M.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Bublik A.

Bublik A.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Arnaldi M.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Arnaldi M.Bublik A.
23
Serve
65
22
Return
25

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Arnaldi M.Bublik A.
1st serve in·Slight edge
56%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
70%
77%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
47%
Service points won·Even
62%
65%
Return points won·Even
37%
35%
Break points saved·Even
61%
65%
Aces / match·Dominant
6.4
11.1
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.4
5.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (117 vs 140). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Arnaldi M.Bublik A.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
78
88
Break points saved·Even
97
99
Break points won·Clear edge
51
67
Deciding sets·Clear edge
86
99
Tiebreaks·Even
99
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Arnaldi M.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Bublik A.
7.7
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.9Hard Elo 1732
Surface ELO
7.1+105 Hard Elo edge
2.6Overall Elo 1830
ELO gap
7.4Overall Elo 1889
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
4.7
Surface form
6.9
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.4
Minutes 14d
8.5
7.0
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
9.0
Country comfort
4.8
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Arnaldi M.Bublik A.
Freshness·Dominant
95
70

Arnaldi M.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Bublik A.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 33 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
30°CDrizzle
Wind 16 km/hHumidity 61%
Final
Sinner J.[2]
Dimitrov G.[11]
6-36-1
Semi-finals
Dimitrov G.[11]
Zverev A.[4]
6-46-746-4
Sinner J.[2]
Medvedev D.[3]
6-16-2
Quarter-finals
Medvedev D.[3]
Jarry N.[22]
6-27-67
Dimitrov G.[11]
Alcaraz C.[1]
6-26-4
Sinner J.[2]
Machac T.
6-46-2
Zverev A.[4]
Marozsan F.
6-37-5
R16
Alcaraz C.[1]
Musetti L.[23]
6-36-3
Dimitrov G.[11]
Hurkacz H.[8]
3-66-37-63
Medvedev D.[3]
Koepfer D.
7-656-0
Marozsan F.
De Minaur A.[9]
6-40-66-1
Jarry N.[22]
Ruud C.[7]
7-636-3
Machac T.
Arnaldi M.
6-36-3
Sinner J.[2]
Oconnell C.
6-46-3
Zverev A.[4]
Khachanov K.[15]
6-16-4
R32
Alcaraz C.[1]
Monfils G.
6-26-4
Oconnell C.
Damm M.
7-657-65
Koepfer D.
Humbert U.[14]
3-66-46-3
Machac T.
Murray A.
5-77-57-65
Dimitrov G.[11]
Hanfmann Y.
6-16-0
Zverev A.[4]
Eubanks C.[31]
7-646-3
Khachanov K.[15]
Cerundolo F.[20]
6-15-77-65
De Minaur A.[9]
Struff J.[24]
7-636-4
Marozsan F.
Popyrin A.
7-56-3
Ruud C.[7]
Davidovich Fokina A.[27]
6-36-4
Jarry N.[22]
Seyboth Wild T.
6-717-56-3
Medvedev D.[3]
Norrie C.[30]
7-56-1
Arnaldi M.
Shapovalov D.
6-37-67
Sinner J.[2]
Griekspoor T.[25]
5-77-56-1
Hurkacz H.[8]
Korda S.[28]
7-656-756-3
Musetti L.[23]
Shelton B.[16]
6-47-65
R64
Alcaraz C.[1]
Carballes Baena R.
6-26-1
Monfils G.
Thompson J.[33]
6-736-16-2
Dimitrov G.[11]
Tabilo A.
6-757-656-2
Eubanks C.[31]
Evans D.
7-633-67-67
Cerundolo F.[20]
Ofner S.
7-626-726-1
Khachanov K.[15]
Djere L.
6-26-4
Struff J.[24]
Altmaier D.
6-36-3
Marozsan F.
Rune H.[6]
6-16-1
Ruud C.[7]
Van Assche L.
7-651-66-1
Davidovich Fokina A.[27]
Shang J.
6-37-5
Jarry N.[22]
Draper J.
7-654-67-62
Damm M.
Paul T.[13]
4-62-1
De Minaur A.[9]
Kwon S.
6-36-2
Shapovalov D.
Tsitsipas S.[10]
6-26-4
Machac T.
Rublev A.[5]
6-46-4
Oconnell C.
Tiafoe F.[21]
7-57-65
Hanfmann Y.
Mannarino A.[19]
3-67-616-4
Korda S.[28]
Bautista Agut R.
6-726-36-4
Hurkacz H.[8]
Shevchenko A.
6-46-726-3
Zverev A.[4]
Auger Aliassime F.
6-26-4
Popyrin A.
Lehecka J.[26]
6-46-4
Seyboth Wild T.
Fritz T.[12]
6-36-4
Humbert U.[14]
Van De Zandschulp B.
6-46-3
Koepfer D.
Baez S.[18]
6-36-2
Norrie C.[30]
Cobolli F.
7-56-746-2
Medvedev D.[3]
Fucsovics M.
6-46-2
Murray A.
Etcheverry T.[29]
7-606-3
Arnaldi M.
Bublik A.[17]
6-46-1
Griekspoor T.[25]
Michelsen A.
7-656-776-4
Sinner J.[2]
Vavassori A.
6-36-4
Shelton B.[16]
Landaluce M.
6-36-4
Musetti L.[23]
Safiullin R.
7-56-1
R128
Safiullin R.
Schwartzman D.
6-26-4
Bautista Agut R.
Nava E.
6-37-64
Damm M.
Zhang Z.
7-627-63
Michelsen A.
Klein L.
7-656-2
Fucsovics M.
Purcell M.
6-26-1
Cobolli F.
Nishioka Y.
1-66-16-4
Shevchenko A.
Galan D.
6-747-647-5
Carballes Baena R.
Vukic A.
7-626-3
Monfils G.
Lajovic D.
7-656-4
Landaluce M.
Munar J.
6-31-67-5
Tabilo A.
Nakashima B.
6-43-66-3
Hanfmann Y.
Ruusuvuori E.
6-44-66-4
Auger Aliassime F.
Walton A.
7-56-4
Evans D.
Sonego L.
1-66-36-4
Djere L.
Wong C.
7-57-63
Kwon S.
Muller A.
7-636-3
Altmaier D.
Mayot H.
6-27-5
Popyrin A.
Diaz Acosta F.
6-26-2
Marozsan F.
Kovacevic A.
6-36-2
Van Assche L.
Kotov P.
6-37-5
Shang J.
Kecmanovic M.
7-654-67-65
Draper J.
Daniel T.
6-36-2
Seyboth Wild T.
Borges N.
6-47-5
Koepfer D.
Giron M.
4-66-16-4
Machac T.
Blanch D.
6-46-2
Murray A.
Berrettini M.
4-66-36-4
Arnaldi M.
Fils A.
6-36-4
Shapovalov D.
Darderi L.
6-36-736-4
Oconnell C.
Kopriva V.
6-26-4
Vavassori A.
Cachin P.
6-26-2
Ofner S.
Nishikori K.
6-36-4
Van De Zandschulp B.
Hijikata R.
7-57-63