Katie Boulter vs Marta KostyukSan Diego Final

San Diego · WTA · Final
#67WTA
1831ELO
1795Hard ELO
29 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWWLWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 26 February 2024
hard
#11WTA
2057ELO
1968Hard ELO
$2.3MYTD
$9.1MCAREER
24 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLWWW
Boulter K.
5-7 6-2 6-2
Kostyuk M.
Boulter K.
5662
Kostyuk M.
7221

Katie Boulter defeated Marta Kostyuk 5-7 6-2 6-2 in the San Diego final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Marta Kostyuk came in ranked #11, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's round of 16. Katie Boulter claimed a first win over Marta Kostyuk in two meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 1–1.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-08-25US OpenR128hardMarta Kostyuk6-4 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Boulter K.serving69% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Kostyuk M.

Kostyuk M.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Boulter K.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Boulter K.Kostyuk M.
21
Serve
53
67
Return
57

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
58%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
45%
45%
Service points won·Even
58%
57%
Return points won·Even
44%
46%
Break points saved·Even
55%
59%
Aces / match·Even
3.1
3.0
Double faults / match·Slight edge
5.3
5.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (118 vs 117). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
87
92
Break points saved·Slight edge
86
93
Break points won·Slight edge
93
98
Deciding sets·Even
94
98
Tiebreaks·Even
88
86

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 28 days (−0.3)
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
Form & Matchup
3.0Hard Elo 1795
Surface ELO
7.0+173 Hard Elo edge
2.5Overall Elo 1831
ELO gap
7.5Overall Elo 2057
5.0
H2H
5.0
6.3
Surface form
6.7
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
9.0
8.0
Prev. match
Context
5.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
99
77

Boulter K.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Kostyuk M.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 37 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast