Lucia Bronzetti vs Daria KasatkinaDubai Round of 64

Dubai · WTA · Round of 64
#139WTA
1622ELO
1551Hard ELO
27 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 19 February 2024
hard
#63WTA
1795ELO
1757Hard ELO
29 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLLWWL
Bronzetti L.
7-6 4-6 7-5
Kasatkina D.
Bronzetti L.
77472
Kasatkina D.
65651

Lucia Bronzetti defeated Daria Kasatkina 7-6 4-6 7-5 in the Dubai round of 64 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Daria Kasatkina came in ranked #63, defending last year's round of 32. Lucia Bronzetti extended the head-to-head to 2–0.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-08-07CincinnatiR64hardLucia Bronzetti6-3 1-6 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Bronzetti L.serving57% hold

wins 53% of points on serve vs Kasatkina D.

Kasatkina D.serving67% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Bronzetti L.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Bronzetti L.Kasatkina D.
12
Serve
0
14
Return
95

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
61%
60%
2nd serve points won·Even
45%
42%
Service points won·Even
55%
54%
Return points won·Slight edge
43%
48%
Break points saved·Even
55%
53%
Aces / match·Even
2.0
1.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.6
5.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (140 vs 120). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
55
78
Break points saved·Slight edge
74
80
Break points won·Clear edge
84
100
Deciding sets·Dominant
60
93
Tiebreaks·Even
48
47

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
7.7
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
1.8Hard Elo 1551
Surface ELO
8.2+207 Hard Elo edge
1.6Overall Elo 1622
ELO gap
8.4Overall Elo 1795
5.0
H2H
5.0
3.0
Surface form
6.8
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
9.0
Minutes 14d
3.1
7.0
3-set count
4.0
Prev. match
8.0
Country comfort
5.4
Context
5.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
100
95

Bronzetti L.: 19 days rest · Kasatkina D.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
23°CClear
Wind 29 km/hHumidity 60%

Draw