Jelena Ostapenko vs Marta KostyukAdelaide Quarter-final

Adelaide · WTA · Quarter-final
#31WTA
1855ELO
1794Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$20MCAREER
29 yrs · 177 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 8 January 2024
hard
#13WTA
2057ELO
1968Hard ELO
$2.3MYTD
$9.1MCAREER
24 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLWWW
Ostapenko J.
7-5 6-3
Kostyuk M.
Ostapenko J.
762
Kostyuk M.
530

Jelena Ostapenko defeated Marta Kostyuk 7-5 6-3 in the Adelaide quarter-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Marta Kostyuk came in ranked #13. Jelena Ostapenko extended the head-to-head to 2–0.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-09-18GuadalajaraR32hardJelena Ostapenko6-2 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Ostapenko J.serving64% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Kostyuk M.

Kostyuk M.serving69% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Ostapenko J.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Ostapenko J.Kostyuk M.
10
Serve
53
45
Return
57

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
57%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
65%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
43%
45%
Service points won·Even
56%
57%
Return points won·Even
45%
46%
Break points saved·Slight edge
53%
59%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.0
3.0
Double faults / match·Even
5.7
6.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (104 vs 117). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
88
92
Break points saved·Clear edge
79
93
Break points won·Even
100
98
Deciding sets·Even
96
98
Tiebreaks·Even
87
85

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.8Hard Elo 1794
Surface ELO
7.2+173 Hard Elo edge
2.5Overall Elo 1855
ELO gap
7.5Overall Elo 2057
10.0
H2H
0.0
6.0
Surface form
5.2
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
6.3
Minutes 14d
7.9
4.0
3-set count
7.0
6.0
Prev. match
7.0
5.5
Country comfort
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
92
69

Ostapenko J.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Kostyuk M.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 57 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
22°COvercast
Wind 17 km/hHumidity 62%