Pavel Kotov vs Lorenzo Musetti — Hong Kong Round of 16

Hong Kong · ATP · Round of 16
RUS
Pavel Kotov
#255ATP
1652ELO
1629Hard ELO
27 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLWWWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 1 January 2024
hard
ITA
Lorenzo Musetti
[6]
#11ATP
1969ELO
1904Hard ELO
$961kYTD
$15MCAREER
24 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWLWWL

Pavel Kotov defeated Lorenzo Musetti 6-4 6-3 in the Hong Kong round of 16 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Lorenzo Musetti came in ranked #11.

Key context

  • Match story: Pavel Kotov closed it out in two sets, 6–4 6–3.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Kotov P.
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 56 days (−0.7)
Musetti L.
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 37 days (−0.7)
Form & Matchup
1.6Hard Elo 1629
Surface ELO
8.4+275 Hard Elo edge
1.1Overall Elo 1652
ELO gap
8.9Overall Elo 1969
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
8.2
Surface form
2.1
Win streak
0.0Lost last 6
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0
Opponent rise
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Kotov P.
662
Musetti L.
430

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

Recent form
Kotov P.Musetti L.
64%1st serve in+1%65%
78%1st serve points won+9%69%
53%2nd serve points won+2%55%
69%Service points won+5%64%
38%Return points won38%
61%Break points saved+6%67%
7Aces / match+2.44.6
1.7Double faults / match+0.52.2

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Draw

Final
Rublev A.[1]
Ruusuvuori E.
6-46-4
Muller A.
Nishikori K.
2-66-16-3
Semi-finals
Ruusuvuori E.
Ofner S.
4-67-56-3
Rublev A.[1]
Shang J.
4-66-26-3
Nishikori K.
Shang J.
4-3
Muller A.
Munar J.
4-67-656-4
Quarter-finals
Ruusuvuori E.
Kotov P.
6-37-64
Rublev A.[1]
Fils A.[8]
6-41-66-2
Shang J.
Tiafoe F.[3]
6-46-4
Ofner S.
Bautista Agut R.
6-46-4
Shang J.
Marozsan F.
1-66-36-4
Nishikori K.
Norrie C.
6-33-66-2
Muller A.
Fils A.[4]
3-66-36-1
Munar J.
Musetti L.[2]
2-67-647-5
R16
Tiafoe F.[3]
Kecmanovic M.
6-37-64
Fils A.[8]
Huesler M.
7-57-5
Ruusuvuori E.
Khachanov K.[2]
7-622-66-2
Bautista Agut R.
Cerundolo F.[4]
7-56-3
Rublev A.[1]
Broady L.
6-47-68
Shang J.
Van De Zandschulp B.
6-757-627-62
Ofner S.
Struff J.[5]
6-747-657-62
Kotov P.
Musetti L.[6]
6-46-3
Fils A.[4]
Bergs Z.
7-676-4
Musetti L.[2]
Diallo G.
6-46-3
Norrie C.
Sonego L.
6-24-66-1
Marozsan F.
Rublev A.[1]
7-53-66-3
Nishikori K.
Khachanov K.[3]
4-66-37-5
Munar J.
Borges N.[5]
6-37-5
Muller A.
Kecmanovic M.
5-77-667-610
Shang J.
Martinez P.[7]
6-36-1
R32
Musetti L.[6]
Wong C.
6-47-5
Musetti L.
Wong C.
6-47-5
Fils A.[8]
Gojo B.
6-34-66-1
Huesler M.
Sachko V.
6-46-4
Kotov P.
Borges N.
6-26-4
Broady L.
Cachin P.
6-46-0
Struff J.[5]
Cilic M.
3-67-647-67
Ruusuvuori E.
Bonzi B.
6-756-26-1
Shang J.
Djere L.[7]
6-756-37-68
Bautista Agut R.
Marozsan F.
6-26-3
Ofner S.
Mcdonald M.
6-16-2
Kecmanovic M.
Daniel T.
6-36-2
Van De Zandschulp B.
Mochizuki S.
7-56-1
Nishikori K.
Shapovalov D.
6-26-3
Muller A.
Huesler M.
2-66-46-3
Bergs Z.
Moro Canas A.
6-46-4
Borges N.[5]
Yunchaokete B.
3-66-37-66
Diallo G.
Carballes Baena R.
4-67-647-5
Munar J.
Davidovich Fokina A.
4-66-36-3
Kecmanovic M.
Darderi L.[8]
6-36-3
Marozsan F.
Safiullin R.
6-17-69
Norrie C.
Tien L.
6-37-5
Sonego L.
Nakashima B.[6]
7-646-3
Shang J.
Wong C.
7-636-4
Martinez P.[7]
Passaro F.
6-46-4