Caroline Garcia vs Jasmine PaoliniUnited Cup Round Robin

United Cup · WTA · Round Robin
#780WTA
32 yrs · 177 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLWLWLL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 1 January 2024
hard
#17WTA
1905ELO
1873Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$16MCAREER
30 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWLL
Garcia C.
6-4 5-7 6-4
Paolini J.
Garcia C.
6562
Paolini J.
4741

Caroline Garcia defeated Jasmine Paolini 6-4 5-7 6-4 in the United Cup round robin on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Jasmine Paolini came in ranked #17. Caroline Garcia extended the head-to-head to 5–4.

Key context

  • Match story: Caroline Garcia edged a tight contest from start to finish — 6–4 5–7 6–4.

Head to head

44
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-02-09DohaR32hardJasmine Paolini6-3 6-4
2024-04-22MadridR32clayJasmine Paolini6-3 6-2
2023-11-07BJK Cup FinalsRRhardJasmine Paolini7-6(6) 5-7 6-4
2023-10-09ZhengzhouR16hardJasmine Paolini3-6 6-4 7-5
2023-01-30LyonQFhardCaroline Garcia7-5 7-5
2022-07-25WarsawSFclayCaroline Garcia6-1 6-2
2022-07-11LausanneR32clayCaroline Garcia6-3 6-3
2020-08-31US OpenR128hardCaroline Garcia6-3 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Garcia C.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Paolini J.

Paolini J.serving84% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Garcia C.

Serve advantage — Paolini J.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Garcia C.Paolini J.
Serve
31
Return
55

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
60%
68%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
68%
62%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
49%
Service points won·Even
60%
58%
Return points won·Slight edge
38%
45%
Break points saved·Even
55%
55%
Aces / match·Dominant
6.3
1.5
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.8
1.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (46 vs 138). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
72
89
Break points saved·Even
91
87
Break points won·Dominant
50
99
Deciding sets·Even
93
97
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
82
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Extended break: 55 days (−0.7)
5.9
Even matchUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Extended break: 55 days (−0.7)
Form & Matchup
2.8
H2H
7.2
4.7
Surface form
8.0
0.0
Win streak
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
76

Paolini J.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 46 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast