Katie Boulter vs Jessica PegulaUnited Cup Round Robin

United Cup · WTA · Round Robin
#60WTA
1831ELO
1795Hard ELO
29 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWWLWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 1 January 2024
hard
#4WTA
2097ELO
2058Hard ELO
$2.8MYTD
$25MCAREER
32 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWWWL
Boulter K.
5-7 6-4 6-4
Pegula J.
Boulter K.
5662
Pegula J.
7441

Katie Boulter defeated Jessica Pegula 5-7 6-4 6-4 in the United Cup round robin on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Jessica Pegula came in ranked #4, leading the head-to-head 2–0, defending the title. Katie Boulter claimed a first win over Jessica Pegula in three meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 2–1.

Key context

Head to head

02
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-04-21MadridR64clayJessica Pegula6-4 6-4
2025-09-19BJK Cup FinalsRRhardJessica Pegula3-6 6-4 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Boulter K.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Pegula J.

Pegula J.serving79% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Boulter K.

Serve advantage — Pegula J.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Boulter K.Pegula J.
21
Serve
68
67
Return
73

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
58%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
68%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
45%
50%
Service points won·Even
58%
61%
Return points won·Even
44%
45%
Break points saved·Even
56%
59%
Aces / match·Even
3.2
3.1
Double faults / match·Dominant
5.3
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (118 vs 151). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
87
96
Break points saved·Slight edge
86
96
Break points won·Slight edge
93
99
Deciding sets·Slight edge
94
100
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
88
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.1
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 52 days (−0.7)
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 63 days (−1.2)
Form & Matchup
1.7Hard Elo 1795
Surface ELO
8.3+263 Hard Elo edge
1.6Overall Elo 1831
ELO gap
8.4Overall Elo 2097
5.0
H2H
5.0
4.7
Surface form
8.6
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Context
5.0
Defending pts

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
98
76

Boulter K.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Pegula J.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 54 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast