Alex Bolt vs Pablo Llamas RuizCanberra CH Qualifying Round 1

Canberra CH · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Round 1
#166ATP
1588ELO
1541Hard ELO
$125kYTD
$2.2MCAREER
33 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLWLWLL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 1 January 2024
hard
#116ATP
1757ELO
1630Hard ELO
$268kYTD
$884kCAREER
23 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLWLWWW
Bolt A.
7-5 4-6 7-6
Llamas Ruiz P.
Bolt A.
74772
Llamas Ruiz P.
56651

Alex Bolt defeated Pablo Llamas Ruiz 7-5 4-6 7-6 in the Canberra CH qualifying round 1 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Pablo Llamas Ruiz came in ranked #116, leading the head-to-head 1–0. Alex Bolt claimed a first win over Pablo Llamas Ruiz in two meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 1–1.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-05-26Roland GarrosQ1clayPablo Llamas Ruiz4-6 6-4 7-5

Serve vs return

This season
Bolt A.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Llamas Ruiz P.

Llamas Ruiz P.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Bolt A.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
64%
70%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
51%
Service points won·Even
65%
62%
Return points won·Slight edge
36%
41%
Break points saved·Even
65%
61%
Aces / match·Dominant
7.0
2.3
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.0
1.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (143 vs 109). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
44
63
Break points saved·Slight edge
93
88
Break points won·Dominant
7
39
Deciding sets·Dominant
46
79
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
83
72

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
3.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 91 days (−1.5)
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 70 days (−1.2)
Form & Matchup
4.5Hard Elo 1541
Surface ELO
5.5+90 Hard Elo edge
3.9Overall Elo 1588
ELO gap
6.1Overall Elo 1757
5.0
H2H
5.0
4.2
Surface form
5.2
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Context
6.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
100
98

Bolt A.: 21 days rest · Llamas Ruiz P.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast