Blake Ellis vs Rio NoguchiMatsuyama CH Qualifying Round 2

Matsuyama CH · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Round 2
#472ATP
1416ELO
1390Hard ELO
27 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLLLLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 6 November 2023
hard
#222ATP
1532ELO
1513Hard ELO
27 yrs · 168 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLLLWWLWL
Ellis B.
6-4 0-6 7-5
Noguchi R.
Ellis B.
6072
Noguchi R.
4651

Blake Ellis defeated Rio Noguchi 6-4 0-6 7-5 in the Matsuyama CH qualifying round 2 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Rio Noguchi came in ranked #222, defending last year's round of 32.

Key context

  • Match story: Blake Ellis closed it out in three sets, 6–4 0–6 7–5.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Ellis B.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Noguchi R.

Noguchi R.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Ellis B.

Serve advantage — Noguchi R.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
57%
65%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
72%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
51%
Service points won·Even
62%
61%
Return points won·Even
36%
40%
Break points saved·Even
60%
56%
Aces / match·Dominant
7.9
1.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.2
1.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (93 vs 198). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
41
23
Break points saved·Dominant
79
25
Break points won·Clear edge
3
26
Deciding sets·Even
78
82
Tiebreaks·Dominant
38
4

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.9Hard Elo 1390
Surface ELO
6.1+122 Hard Elo edge
3.8Overall Elo 1416
ELO gap
6.2Overall Elo 1532
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
4.3
Surface form
6.0
0.0Lost last 4
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
8.2
Minutes 14d
5.6
3-set count
7.0
9.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
90
86

Ellis B.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Noguchi R.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 30 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast