Aslan Karatsev vs Matteo ArnaldiZhuhai Round of 32

Zhuhai · ATP · Round of 32
#1285ATP
32 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWLWLLL
2 — 1
Sets
Wednesday, 20 September 2023
hard
#35ATP
1830ELO
1732Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWWL
Karatsev A.
6-7 7-6 6-2
Arnaldi M.
Karatsev A.
657762
Arnaldi M.
776521

Aslan Karatsev defeated Matteo Arnaldi 6-7 7-6 6-2 in the Zhuhai round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Matteo Arnaldi came in ranked #35.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Karatsev A.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Arnaldi M.

Arnaldi M.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Karatsev A.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Karatsev A.Arnaldi M.
Serve
23
Return
22

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
61%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
51%
Service points won·Even
64%
62%
Return points won·Even
37%
38%
Break points saved·Even
61%
63%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.0
5.8
Double faults / match·Clear edge
4.1
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (109 vs 194). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
43
78
Break points saved·Even
94
97
Break points won·Clear edge
39
51
Deciding sets·Dominant
37
86
Tiebreaks·Dominant
41
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Extended break: 37 days (−0.7)
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
2.7
Surface form
6.2
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
92

Arnaldi M.: 9 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast