Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Juan Manuel CerundoloAntofagasta CH Round of 16

Antofagasta CH · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#58ATP
1759ELO
1741Clay ELO
$653kYTD
$2.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWLWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 18 September 2023
clay
#45ATP
1790ELO
1762Clay ELO
$752kYTD
$2.4MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLWWLWWWW
Ugo Carabelli C.
7-6 3-6 6-2
Cerundolo J.
Ugo Carabelli C.
77362
Cerundolo J.
65621

Camilo Ugo Carabelli defeated Juan Manuel Cerundolo 7-6 3-6 6-2 in the Antofagasta CH round of 16 on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Juan Manuel Cerundolo came in ranked #45, leading the head-to-head 1–0. Camilo Ugo Carabelli claimed a first win over Juan Manuel Cerundolo in two meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 1–1.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-02-26SantiagoQ1clayJuan Manuel Cerundolo6-1 7-6(4)

Serve vs return

This season
Ugo Carabelli C.serving63% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Cerundolo J.

Cerundolo J.serving66% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Ugo Carabelli C.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Ugo Carabelli C.Cerundolo J.
24
Serve
15
28
Return
41

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
51%
Service points won·Even
60%
61%
Return points won·Even
41%
41%
Break points saved·Even
60%
57%
Aces / match·Even
2.7
3.2
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.4
2.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 199). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
78
85
Break points saved·Slight edge
90
82
Break points won·Clear edge
62
80
Deciding sets·Even
96
98
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
72
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
Form & Matchup
5.8Clay Elo 1741
Surface ELO
4.2+21 Clay Elo edge
5.8Overall Elo 1759
ELO gap
4.2Overall Elo 1790
3.3
H2H
6.7
7.0
Surface form
5.2
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.8
Minutes 14d
5.9
3-set count
7.0
7.0
Prev. match
9.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
100
100

Ugo Carabelli C.: 15 days rest · Cerundolo J.: 15 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast