Jan Choinski vs Camilo Ugo CarabelliMeerbusch CH Final

Meerbusch CH · CHALLENGER · Final
#75ATP
1686ELO
1652Clay ELO
$204kYTD
$1.2MCAREER
30 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 7 August 2023
clay
#58ATP
1759ELO
1741Clay ELO
$653kYTD
$2.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWLWLW
Choinski J.
6-4 6-0
Ugo Carabelli C.
Choinski J.
662
Ugo Carabelli C.
400

Jan Choinski defeated Camilo Ugo Carabelli 6-4 6-0 in the Meerbusch CH final on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Camilo Ugo Carabelli came in ranked #58, but Jan Choinski had been the form player, winning 5 of their last 6 on clay.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Choinski J.serving68% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Ugo Carabelli C.

Ugo Carabelli C.serving70% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Choinski J.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Choinski J.Ugo Carabelli C.
Serve
24
Return
28

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
49%
Service points won·Even
62%
60%
Return points won·Even
38%
41%
Break points saved·Even
63%
60%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.1
2.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.6
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
55
78
Break points saved·Even
90
90
Break points won·Dominant
20
62
Deciding sets·Slight edge
88
96
Tiebreaks·Dominant
41
72

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.9Clay Elo 1652
Surface ELO
7.1+88 Clay Elo edge
2.8Overall Elo 1686
ELO gap
7.2Overall Elo 1759
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
4.9
Surface form
5.4
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
6.6
Minutes 14d
0.0
7.0
3-set count
4.0
9.0
Prev. match
7.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
55
100

Choinski J.: 2 days rest · 5 matches, 113 games (7d) · Ugo Carabelli C.: 15 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast