Matteo Arnaldi vs Aleksandar KovacevicCanada Masters Qualifying Round 1

Canada Masters · ATP · Qualifying Round 1
#34ATP
1830ELO
1732Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 7 August 2023
hard
#70ATP
1636ELO
1611Hard ELO
$627kYTD
$2.9MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLWLLLWW
Arnaldi M.
6-4 6-4
Kovacevic A.
Arnaldi M.
662
Kovacevic A.
440

Matteo Arnaldi defeated Aleksandar Kovacevic 6-4 6-4 in the Canada Masters qualifying round 1 on hard. The result followed the form book — Matteo Arnaldi came in ranked #34, leading the head-to-head 2–0. Matteo Arnaldi extended the head-to-head to 3–0.

Key context

  • Match story: Matteo Arnaldi edged a tight contest from start to finish — 6–4 6–4.

Head to head

20
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-10-20ViennaR32hardMatteo Arnaldi7-5 6-4
2025-03-05Indian Wells MastersR128hardMatteo Arnaldi6-3 5-7 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Arnaldi M.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Kovacevic A.

Kovacevic A.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Arnaldi M.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Arnaldi M.Kovacevic A.
23
Serve
52
22
Return
0

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
58%
60%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
70%
77%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
51%
Service points won·Even
62%
66%
Return points won·Even
37%
34%
Break points saved·Even
63%
64%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.8
9.3
Double faults / match·Even
3.3
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (195 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
78
53
Break points saved·Even
97
96
Break points won·Dominant
51
4
Deciding sets·Slight edge
86
81
Tiebreaks·Dominant
99
60

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.0+121 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.0Hard Elo 1611
6.4Overall Elo 1830
ELO gap
3.6Overall Elo 1636
5.0
H2H
5.0
2.7
Surface form
5.8
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.8
Minutes 14d
6.2
4.0
3-set count
7.0
8.0
Prev. match
6.0
6.0
Surface transition
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
97
100

Arnaldi M.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Kovacevic A.: 15 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
24°CPartly cloudy
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 80%