Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio CobolliUmag Round of 16

Umag · ATP · Round of 16
#34ATP
1830ELO
1830Clay ELO
$1.2MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 24 July 2023
clay
#9ATP
1896ELO
1862Clay ELO
$3.1MYTD
$8.4MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWWW
Arnaldi M.
6-3 7-6
Cobolli F.
Arnaldi M.
6772
Cobolli F.
3650

Matteo Arnaldi defeated Flavio Cobolli 6-3 7-6 in the Umag round of 16 on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Flavio Cobolli came in ranked #9, leading the head-to-head 1–0, but Matteo Arnaldi had been the form player, winning 4 of their last 4 on clay. Matteo Arnaldi claimed a first win over Flavio Cobolli in two meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 1–1.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-05-26Roland GarrosR64clayFlavio Cobolli6-3 6-3 6-7(6) 6-1

Serve vs return

This season
Arnaldi M.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Cobolli F.

Cobolli F.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Arnaldi M.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Arnaldi M.Cobolli F.
Serve
54
Return
54

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
58%
55%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
52%
Service points won·Even
62%
63%
Return points won·Even
37%
38%
Break points saved·Even
63%
62%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.8
5.1
Double faults / match·Even
3.3
3.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (194 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
78
76
Break points saved·Even
97
96
Break points won·Clear edge
51
35
Deciding sets·Clear edge
86
98
Tiebreaks·Even
99
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.4Clay Elo 1830
Surface ELO
6.6+32 Clay Elo edge
3.0Overall Elo 1830
ELO gap
7.0Overall Elo 1896
7.2
H2H
2.8
7.1
Surface form
6.8
Fatigue & Travel
7.1
Minutes 14d
8.0
4.0
3-set count
6.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
6.0
Opponent rise
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
96
66

Arnaldi M.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Cobolli F.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 63 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast